Three names, all existing holdings, all being added to with a published limit price — so all three are Positive. Research legend: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis. Foreign primary listings keep this source's suffixed row ids: CSU.TO (Toronto, research at the US OTC line CNSWF) and KPG.AX (ASX, no US line). Berkshire appears only inside the Buffett-underperformance statistic and gets no row. Written post with no timestamps — the At link opens the article.
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What he said | At |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BN | Brookfield Corporation | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BOUGHT — $25,000, Q 650, limit $38.50 at Monday's open. "I want to make Brookfield Corporation (one of) the largest positions in Our Portfolio… it could be the ultimate cornerstone for every quality investor… It's very simple: winners tend to keep on winning." The valuation is stated twice over: intrinsic value $68 against a $39 price = "a discount of 40% compared to its NAV. This is a very large discount from a historical perspective!" And on earnings: Distributable Earnings of $2.3 today guided to $6.95 by 2030 (a 25% CAGR), so "a P/E of 16.9x (and 5.6x based on expected 2030 numbers). That's not expensive if you ask me." | read ↗ |
| CSU.TO | Constellation Software | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BOUGHT — $15,000, Q 8, limit CAD 2,600. "The best serial acquirer in the world… products are critical to their customers. Clients are governments, hospitals, schools… very loyal." The entry is framed as a sentiment trade against a fundamental fact: "I truly think Mr. Market is in a depressive state for Constellation Software today… I don't agree with Mr. Market and the idea the company will be massively disrupted by AI. Constellation Software is here to stay." The metric offered is CROI — Cash Return On Incremental Investments — at 29.1% over three years: "for every $100 you invest, CSU makes $29.1 per year (!) for you." Governance footnote: Mark Leonard stepped down as CEO for health reasons but "will stay on the board of directors." | read ↗ |
| KPG.AX | Kelly Partners Group Holdings | STK | Positive | BOUGHT — $10,000, Q 2,700, limit AUD 5.50. "Essentially a holding company for accounting firms" that buys 51% stakes "and let[s] the original accountant keep running the business (keeping them motivated with their own stake)." Three-part model: "Accounting clients rarely switch, so revenue is predictable year after year. Taxes always need filing (it's recession-proof). Growth is simple: just acquire more firms and repeat." The setup: "down 36.7% since the beginning of the year and 60% from its peak. In the meantime, the underlying performance was (very) good." Valued on NPATA — amortisation added back because it is "not a real cash expense… very similar to Warren Buffett's idea of 'Owner Earnings'" — at 21.8x expected 2026, then 15.0x (2027), 12.0x (2028) and 9.6x (2029) on management's own $16m/$20m/$25m targets. The stated condition: "very cheap if Brett Kelly can execute its plans." | read ↗ |
Stance = how each name is framed in this post. The pre-committed limit-price discipline and the NPATA/CROI valuation methods are on the actionable insights page.
A jargon-free summary of the thesis behind each argued name. (Renders on each name's consolidated page.)
Brookfield owns long-lived physical assets — property, power stations, ports, pipelines — and also manages money for large institutions, collecting fees and a share of profits. Both sides throw off cash steadily.
Two different measuring sticks say the same thing here. Brookfield itself publishes an estimate of what its assets are worth: $68 a share. The shares trade at $39, so you are paying about 60 cents for a dollar of assets, a bigger gap than has been usual historically. Separately, on "distributable earnings" — the cash actually available to shareholders — it earns $2.30 a share and expects $6.95 by 2030. At $39 that is under 17 times today's cash and under 6 times what management expects in four years.
What makes this the largest of the three adds is intent rather than arithmetic: Slegers wants Brookfield to become one of the biggest positions he owns, on the plain view that "winners tend to keep on winning." The honest caveat is that the 2030 number is management's own forecast and the post does not test it.
Constellation buys small software companies whose products run one specific kind of organisation — a hospital department, a school district, a transit authority — and holds them permanently. Because the software is essential and the customers are institutions, revenue barely moves.
The one number that matters for a business like this is not the price-to-earnings ratio but what it earns on each new dollar it invests, because reinvestment is the entire engine. Over the past three years that figure — cash return on incremental investment — has been 29.1%: for every $100 put to work, it generates about $29 a year. As long as that holds and there are companies left to buy, the compounding continues.
The shares have fallen because investors fear AI will make niche software easy to replace, and because founder Mark Leonard stepped down as chief executive for health reasons. The post answers the first with durability and the second with a fact from François Rochon's shareholder letter: Leonard remains on the board.
Kelly Partners buys 51% of small accounting practices and leaves the original accountant running the firm with the other 49%. That structure is the point: the person who keeps the clients also keeps half the profits, so they stay motivated. Clients rarely change accountants, tax returns must be filed in good years and bad, and growth simply means buying the next practice.
The shares have fallen 36.7% this year and 60% from the peak while, on the company's own reporting, the business kept performing. The valuation is done on NPATA — profit with amortisation added back — because amortisation is an accounting entry for past acquisitions rather than money leaving the business; it is the same adjustment Buffett describes as "owner earnings." On that basis the shares are at about 22 times this year's expected profit, falling to roughly 15, 12 and 10 times on management's targets for the next three years.
The condition is stated openly and should be kept: it is "very cheap if Brett Kelly can execute its plans." Those forward multiples are management's targets, not results.
Summary derived from the archived Compounding Quality post (text in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Compounding Quality / Pieter Slegers for source material.