Title: Rick Rule: Commodity Weakness Is Coming—Here's What to Buy Show: In the Money with Amber Kanwar (YouTube) — season premiere Guest: Rick Rule (founder, Rule Investment Media; ex-CEO Sprott US) Date: 2026-09-08 (published) URL: https://youtu.be/Ds8m6DiiR7g Length: 70:52 (4252s) Note: fillers (um/uh/you know) and stutters/false starts removed; wording otherwise verbatim, all (mm:ss) cues preserved. SPONSOR READS AND HOST HOUSEKEEPING HAVE BEEN REMOVED (the timestamp lines are kept as markers): Raymond James 01:01-01:54, swag/merch housekeeping 02:32-04:29, Hamilton ETFs 27:49-28:49, Wealthsimple Trade 28:49-29:08, EQB/EQ Bank 43:09-43:55, ATB Financial 54:25-54:58, Haliburton Post House 1:07:30-1:10:14. None of those companies is a Rick Rule view and none is tabled. Auto-caption name corrections applied on the analysis page (this file preserves the raw wording): "Rick roll"=Rick Rule; "Amber Canmore"=Amber Kanwar; "Eric Nuttle"=Eric Nuttall; "Greta Thornberg"=Greta Thunberg; "Orange Julius"=his nickname for Trump; "Abex/Abbex/Abeck"=Abaxx Technologies ("Josh Crum"=Josh Crumb); "nation's royalties"=Nations Royalty ("Nishka"=Nisga'a, "Talllan/Tlan"=Tahltan, "Bruce Jack"=Brucejack, "kitsalt"=Kitsault, "Abatibby"=Abitibi); "Aabaska"=Athabasca Oil; "Will Lundine"/"Londines"=Will Lundin / the Lundin family, "Black rod"=Blackrod; "ARC"=ARC Resources; "Dundee Bank Corp"=Dundee Corporation, "reunion"=Reunion Gold, "G2/G mining"=G Mining Ventures; "Vizla/Visla/Vista/Vistasa"=Vizsla Silver, "Craig Perry"=Craig Parry, "nextgen"=NexGen Energy, "Sinoa/Senoloa"=Sinaloa, "narot trafficantes"=narcotraficantes, "Mr. Guusman"=Guzman, "platmo"="plata o plomo"; "Aluminina/Luminina"=an unidentified Poland silver developer, "Ross Bey/Ross BD"=Ross Beaty; "copper giant"=Copper Giant Resources, "Frank Gustra/Guster"=Frank Giustra, "Pamo"=the Paramo region; "Alphamin"=Alphamin Resources, "M M23 gorillas"=the M23 rebel group, "10 mine/tint market"=tin; "SPAT/Sprat/spat"=Sprott Inc. and "makes fraud a really easy target"="makes Sprott a really easy target", "manual life"=Manulife; "Agniko Eagle/Magneo/ag"=Agnico Eagle, "bareric/Beric"=Barrick, "pneumont/new mat"=Newmont, "carland"=the Carlin trend; "Caliber"=Calibre Mining; "Tamarak"=Tamarack, "Voise Bay/Boisees Bay"=Voisey's Bay; "JF Tardiff"=Jean-Francois Tardif.
00:03 I think commodities might be challenged for the balance [music] of 2026. Rick Rule sees storm clouds ahead but says that's exactly what investors should be buying. >> What that means is that although I own a fair bit of [music] gold, the fact that the price I think for the balance of 2026 will be stable to down is attractive to me.
00:20 >> We've got Rick Rule for a season premiere. The commodity investor with 50 [music] years of experience doesn't hold back. The worst experience with political risk I ever had in my life came from the People's Republic of California. Nobody shot me, but they delayed my permitting [music] by 13 years.
00:35 The advantage I think Carney does have over Trudeau is that he can count. He can add and subtract. He can [music] multiply and divide. >> The most important choke point. What does that tell you that oil isn't responding so sharply to [music] what 20 years ago might have been a global economic shutdown? How do you think the country can best [music] position itself to capture the demand for natural resources >> in mining in particular? Canada punches way above its weight.
01:01 [SPONSOR READ REMOVED — Raymond James]
01:32 [SPONSOR READ REMOVED — Raymond James, cont.]
01:54 [SPONSOR READ REMOVED — Raymond James, cont.] The content provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. The views expressed by the host and the guest are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company.
02:14 The host and guest may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial adviser or professional before making any investment decisions. In this episode, we discuss Equinox Gold, which is a stock that I own. Hi everyone, welcome to a brand new episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar.
02:32 [HOST HOUSEKEEPING REMOVED — season swag giveaway]
02:52 [HOST HOUSEKEEPING REMOVED]
03:15 [HOST HOUSEKEEPING REMOVED]
03:42 [HOST HOUSEKEEPING REMOVED — merch store soft launch]
04:04 [HOST HOUSEKEEPING REMOVED]
04:29 [HOST HOUSEKEEPING REMOVED] Okay, without further ado, let's get into it. [music] Rick Rule, thank you as always for joining the podcast. A pleasure.
04:55 Thank you for inviting me back. >> You are helping us kick off a brand new season. Although I got to be honest, in the last couple of months, I don't know that that much has changed. We've still got the war to contend with, tariffs, and it all seems supportive of commodities, right? Oil's directionally higher, gold is holding in after a little bit of a sell-off.
05:21 I don't know. Is there anything out there? We know that you're a commodity guy. Is there anything out there that makes you think, maybe my bet on commodities isn't going to pay off for much longer? >> I think it's the other way around. I think commodities might be challenged for the balance of 2026 really is a consequence of continued strength in US interest rates.
05:43 The strength in US interest rates strengthens the dollar relative to other currencies, and could be less than constructive for the gold price and commodity prices. Looking longer term, for reasons that we can discuss later in this interview, I'm still very bullish about both precious metals and natural resources for two different reasons.
06:05 I think we're in two different but simultaneous bull markets and I think both of those bull markets have some room to run, but I'm a little cautious about the near-term outlook. >> Let's expand on that a little bit more. The near-term outlook. You mentioned that it really stems from one thing that is the interest rate picture.
06:25 Is it the prospect of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve or is it what the bond market is telling us needs to be done? >> Yes and yes. I think the underlying rate of inflation in the United States and in Canada is much higher than official statistics would cause you to believe.
06:47 And I think as a consequence of that, very much like in the 1970s, the long-term interest rate is becoming more market dependent than government dependent. The current chairman of the US Fed has suggested that he would like to see more market participation in the interest rate, which would if left of its own devices take the interest rate higher.
07:10 That higher nominal interest rate in the United States is making the US dollar more attractive relative to other countries' currencies. And given that natural resources and precious metals are denominated in US dollars, impacts negatively the pricing for those. To the extent that we continue to experience stronger than normal US interest rates, I would expect weaker or at least stabilized precious metals and natural resources prices.
07:38 Make no mistake, I think the United States is between a rock and a hard spot. And I think ultimately political forces in the United States will cause us both to manipulate the interest rate down and also to engage in quantitative easing which by the way, Amber, if you did it would be called counterfeiting. And I think those two things, artificially lower long-term interest rates coming probably after 2026 and continued quantitative easing, are although bearish for the economy as a whole, bullish for natural resources
08:16 and for precious metals. >> So, how do we get there? How are we talking about an environment of inflation and tighter monetary conditions? And how do we reconcile that with the forecast after 2026 we're going to get back to super low crisis level interventions? >> I think that the economy on both sides of the border, but particularly the political economy, are hooked on debt.
08:42 >> I don't know the comparable Canadian numbers. So I won't insult your political class with the same freedom that I insult my own political class, but in the United States at the federal level, we're spending $7.5 trillion a year and we're taking in 5 trillion a year. We borrow or print the rest. At the same time that we're doing that, our aggregate federal debt exceeds $40 trillion.
09:14 And amazingly, the net present value of off-balance sheet obligations, which is to say entitlements or, looking at my picture, old people like me, the net promises exceeds $120 trillion in the US. If you compare that with the level of federal income, it's pretty obvious that our circumstance is unsustainable, but nobody's willing to cut.
09:38 >> And the market's not ready to freak out about it. We've been hearing about this debt situation for so long. And it's this thing that we can just keep kicking down because it never comes to a head. The bond market never forces the issue. They might be trying right now.
09:53 And then debt is the tool of an optimist. We can grow our way out of it. What do you say to that? >> Amber, one of the few advantages of being 73 years of age is that you've seen a lot of things before and I've seen this before myself. I came of age in the decade of the 70s, which is the last reckoning that we had. The spectre of inflation haunted Americans from 1968 on, >> but our experience over the preceding 20 years had been pretty good post World War II.
10:24 So people were inclined to pay attention to inflation but not be afraid of it until the cumulative impact of inflation began to impact on people's paychecks. To give you an amazing history lesson, in 1966, 1967 there were occasional specials at McDonald's where you could buy five hamburgers for a buck. 20 cents a burger.
10:51 By 1972, the price for a burger was a dollar, which is to say pretty dramatic inflation. What I'm trying to say is that then, like now, while the spectre of inflation was present, people's expectations of the future were set by their experience in the immediate past. And our experience in the immediate past is good. >> Yeah. >> They famously say, "A trend in motion stays in motion until it ends."
11:15 Or put differently by Hemingway when they asked him how he went broke after writing all those books. He said slowly at first and then all of a sudden. And I suspect that the fact that I think real inflation, if you define inflation as the deterioration in the purchasing power of your currency and my currency, that real inflation is more like eight or 10%.
11:42 >> Yeah. >> And I think the realization of that doesn't come all of a sudden. It comes slowly but when it comes — I remember when inflation rather than being a concern was front and center in investors' minds and that period in the middle of the decade of the 70s really took six years to cure. And I suspect that that fulcrum point is coming soon to a country near you. >> And maybe we're already seeing it in consumers, like a company like Campbell. They're having
12:16 trouble moving goldfish. There certainly are challenges with some consumers. So if I've got this right, near-term challenges the rest of the year, 2027 and beyond maybe the clouds part a little bit if you're a commodity investor. So, I want to know what's the right thing to do in these four months of challenge.
12:43 It sounds like you got to sharpen your pencil and get a homework list. This sounds like the time you want to buy, not run scared. What does it look like for you and your portfolios? >> I'm delighted that you say that. Commodity investors seem, and securities investors generally seem, to be concerned when prices go down.
13:03 If they're looking to buy those items, they should be happy that prices are going down. I'm relatively certain, Amber, that when you go shopping for clothes, you shop for sales. And I suspect that what's going to happen in the balance of 2026 is that goods that I want to buy go on sale. Pretty obviously I'm going to buy them.
13:23 I believe as an example that very much like in the decade of the 70s the purchasing power of the US dollar in real terms will decline by as much as 75% in the next 10 years. We saw that in the decade of the 70s. I believe that — and this is a rough guess, not an exact guess — that the nominal price of gold, which is to say the US or Canadian dollar denominated price of gold, will rise in a way that mirrors the decline in purchasing power >> of the dollar.
13:57 What that means is that although I own a fair bit of gold, I'd like to own a lot more. The fact that I'd like to own it and the fact that the price I think for the balance of 2026 will be stable to down is attractive to me. For some reason, when people buy financial goods, they seem to want to pay more. When people buy physical goods, they seem to want to pay less.
14:16 Which is to say, Amber, as a consumer of clothes, is probably more intelligent than most people in financial service selling financial assets. >> Well, we all already knew that, of course. [laughter] I want to bring your view down to specific asset classes. You did mention gold and I know you said you want to be a buyer here at these levels and you see these long-term catalysts.
14:42 It just seems really caught up in this Iran war situation and if the longer the war drags on, the worse it is for gold. Do you spend a lot of time thinking about that dynamic for long-term investors? How should they think about that? >> I spend a lot of time thinking about it. I think the conflict in Iran is bad for the economy as a whole because, among other things, killing people is not a good thing.
15:09 But let's get away from the moral part. The interruption in the supply of things like oil and gas, but also ammonium, fertilizer, aluminum — these higher commodity prices act like a tax on the economy, and taxes are bad for the economy. And it wouldn't surprise me to see the cumulative impact of higher prices be a weaker economy.
15:32 We haven't seen it yet. In 50 years, however, of studying the gold price, I have learned that gold is remarkably resilient to conflict. The thing that moves the gold price is deteriorating faith in the purchasing power of the medium of exchange and negative real interest rates. By negative real interest rates, I mean interest rates on commonly held savings products like the US 10-year Treasury or the Canadian 10-year Treasury that are substantially below the rate in the deterioration of purchasing power of our respective currencies. If you look at
16:10 the US 10-year Treasury yielding foreign change and you agree with my assessment that the real rate of deterioration in the purchasing power of the US dollar is between 8 or 10, you aren't getting a 4.6% yield, you're losing 2.4 or 3.4 or 4.4. It's these periods of negative real interest rates that in my experience over 50 years has seen the gold price do well.
16:39 >> If that's like gold is that kind of safe haven trade. Oil, which is also caught up in the Iran war, is more utilitarian, right? And is beholden to more supply demand dynamics and of course it has done well since the Iran war began. There's been volatility.
17:01 It's $90 a barrel and as our friend Eric Nuttall likes to say, every day above $90 per barrel is a good day if you're an energy producer, but the most important choke point in the world has now been closed since March. And yeah, we're at 90, but we're not at 200. We're not at 300. What does that tell you that oil isn't responding so sharply to what 20 years ago might have been a global economic shutdown if this happened? >> It tells me at least three important things. And thank you for asking that
17:39 question, by the way. Thank you, too, for interviewing Eric Nuttall, a former colleague of mine who I think is a great, great, great oil and gas analyst. Away from the accolades for Eric, let's answer your question. It tells me a few things. The first of all is that the cure for high prices is always high prices.
17:58 >> What the $90 a barrel does, particularly in countries and societies that can't afford it, it kills demand. When the pump price goes up for Amber in Toronto, she might curse a little bit and then she fills her car and drives away because she can afford it. 50 cents more a gallon, while it's an irritation, isn't anything that changes Amber's decision as to what to have for breakfast or how much to drive.
18:26 If Amber, however, was a cab driver in Colombo, Sri Lanka, she parked her car. These high oil prices have been really damaging to demand in emerging and frontier markets, particularly south Asian markets. The second factor is that there was a lot of above ground inventory in the oil business. There were a lot of floating inventories.
18:48 The US strategic petroleum reserve, which is being drained at a very rapid rate, but also reserves in China and Japan in particular shielded us from some of the worst aspects of oil and gas. And then of course there's the swing producers around the world. The leading one is the United States which has had some flexibility in terms of production.
19:13 I would say a fourth variable, at least in the United States, but maybe increasingly in Canada too, is the substitution of liquefied natural gas for oil. >> In some circumstances, the economy and technology has done really a pretty amazing job of accommodating us. But make no mistake, Amber, to the extent that this conflict continues and it looks as though it appears to continue, the adequacy of the above ground reserves, the US strategic stockpile, the Chinese stockpile, the Japanese stockpile gets worn down.
19:48 >> It may be if this Gulf conflict continues that the price we see of oil will reflect an actual shortage as opposed to an anticipated shortage. And that will be very different if you have to begin to really truly ration oil by price as opposed to price oil in anticipation of that. You'll see something very different.
20:12 And the conflict tells us something that your listeners need to know about the oil business too. The price escalation we've seen from the $50 a barrel level before the conflict to as high as 115 and now 90 reflects an artificial shortage. A shortage that could be solved by an armistice. In other words, the shortage doesn't have anything to do with production difficulties.
20:37 It has to do with politics and war. I believe, and I've argued this on your show before, that the oil industry on a global basis, particularly the parastatal companies, have underinvested in sustaining capital in their ability to produce by in excess of a billion dollars a day. The impact of that is cumulative and compounding. And I suggest by 2029, 2030, 2031 that we'll have a structural shortage of oil, a non-artificial shortage of oil, and we won't be able to end that shortage with an armistice.
21:12 And I think that the demand inelasticity that we've seen as a consequence of the conflict will manifest itself in a very real fashion later as a consequence of underinvestment in our ability to produce oil in the face of continued strong demand. You'll recall that your former prime minister and that noted energy physicist Greta Thunberg among others had suggested that peak oil demand would occur in 2030.
21:44 They were wrong. They were simply wrong. Oil demand continues to grow and if you have that continued growth or even if you have stable demand for oil >> in the face of systemic underinvestments in sustaining capital, supply becomes insufficient to meet demand and that shortage, where it's a structural shortage, can't be solved by an armistice, however unlikely an armistice might be.
22:09 >> Well, the times are certainly changing. We have currently a prime minister who's known very much for his environmental chops, who is talking about Canada as an energy producer, as a natural resource superpower. As you know, there's a big wrap ourselves in the flag moment happening across the country, whether it's stoked by the tariff battle between Canada and the US, and there's a big investor summit meant to attract investment to Canada in a way that we haven't seen quite frankly in the last decade. I know you're American
22:44 and you spend a lot of time building businesses, looking at businesses in Canada. How do you think the country can best position itself to capture the demand for natural resources? >> I think Canada needs to ask itself what's in its own best interest. I would argue that what Canada does on a global basis —
23:07 where Canada is most competitive on a global basis — comes in two industries. One, extractive industries, both mining and oil and gas. In mining in particular, Canada punches way above its weight. The export of technology in mining is probably as important. Technology and financial services in mining is probably as important to Canada as mining too.
23:29 And Canada also punches way above its weight in oil and gas. You also, I would argue, punch above your weight in financial services, banking and insurance. And Canada needs to decide whether or not it wants to continue to be competitive in industries that it's already competitive in.
23:50 It was interesting to me, and I don't want to seem too critical of the Canadian government — usually I reserve criticism for my own government — but the truth is it's interesting to me that Carney, who was a primary adviser to Trudeau for 10 years, ran on a campaign of change. That took real courage, changing from him to him. The advantage I think Carney does have over Trudeau is that he can count.
24:13 He can add and subtract. He can multiply and divide. And it would appear that Mr. Trudeau's method of government was narrative. I think Mr. Carney has probably looked at the social expenditures that he is proposing in Canada and come to the odd conclusion that he has to pay for those. That the best chance that he has to pay for his what I would describe as outrageous budget is extractive industries.
24:41 I think Mr. Carney is at his heart opposed to hydrocarbons. I think he is at his heart beholden to a Laurentian elite that is anti-extractive and I think he's understood as a banker that he has no alternative but to allow Canada to generate surplus revenues in industries where it's globally competitive.
25:12 I think that realization is a good thing irrespective of who it comes from. I would compare that directly with Orange Julius in my country who seems absolutely unconnected to the economic realities of the country he governs. >> Well, there's people around him that I know can count that don't seem to be showing him the numbers either.
25:34 So, >> well, perhaps they're counting on their own behalf. What do I know? >> Yeah. Okay, I think I did drag you enough through politics. So, let's dust you off a little bit, pick you up from the mud. But we have so many questions in the mailbag because you're Rick Rule and people know that you get in the weeds.
25:52 I don't know that I've ever asked you this before, but just quickly before we get into the mailbag, what is the Rick Rule method of stockpicking? Do you get out there? Are you flying to these different mines? Are you just really good at reading reports? What is your secret sauce? Because the things you know — it's really small micro stories that you know super in-depth and there's hundreds of them.
26:16 >> I'm not a generalist. I do one thing. There are a lot of investors that I compete with who try to be all things to all people. I proved to myself relatively conclusively in my 30s that I couldn't do all things. One advantage I have is that I've learned an awful lot about how extractive industries work.
26:34 A second advantage is that I employ a very good team. I employ geologists, I employ engineers, I employ financial analysts. >> So I don't do it all myself. But importantly, I don't distract myself. If you ask me a question about laws as an example, I don't know and I would tell you that and I don't waste any time on it whatsoever, which is I think very useful.
26:59 I also have what in my day would have been called a rolodex. I guess you call them contacts. Because I've been active in resource investing for 50 years, I have the ability to contact people who I have learned from experience know things, >> specific things. I know who to call about Archean geology in the Abitibi.
27:25 I know who to call about exploring for copper gold porphyries in accreted terrain. I know who to talk to about various aspects of resources in a way that people who aren't industry specific and frankly people who aren't old can't do. >> All right. So you've got contacts and we've got you.
27:49 So we're going to use that and let's dip into the mailbag and get into some of these questions. [SPONSOR READ REMOVED — Hamilton ETFs]
28:12 [SPONSOR READ REMOVED — Hamilton ETFs, cont.]
28:49 [SPONSOR READ REMOVED — Wealthsimple Trade] Okay, Rick, our first question, actually it's a little bit of a battleground stock. Abaxx Technologies. This question coming from John on X and he says, "I've never heard Rick Rule talk about Abaxx. I think he tweeted about it once and how he thought the creation of a physically settled commodity exchange was important."
29:33 Abaxx, for those who don't know, has aspirations of becoming a large exchange for physically settled commodities like battery metals and LNG and was recently the subject of a short report and since June, Rick, the stock has not recovered. So, I'd love to get just your thoughts on the business, the people behind it, what you thought about that short report.
29:55 >> Josh Crumb, the person behind it, is somebody I've known for a long time and I have a very high regard for. He has been effectively a competitor of mine in the gold business for a long time and I've watched him and he's a very formidable competitor who I like. I also believe that we need more competition, technologically driven competition, in the exchange business and I think what Josh is trying to do with regard to physically settled in a progressive regulatory environment, Singapore, a much
30:26 less politicized regulatory environment, is a very good thing. I need to admit to the questioner that my track record in science and technology is unblemished by success. So, I don't want to comment on Abaxx's technology, but I think what he's trying to do is a very good thing. I did not take on the short report because I don't have a high regard for my own ability to analyze the technology.
30:53 I would love to interview Josh myself >> and have him explain to a financially sophisticated, rational observer the charges and how he proposed to refute them. I had the ability to do that not too long ago with silver when they were attacked by a short report. Now I had the advantage there of understanding a lot more about the silver mining business than I do about exchange technology.
31:23 >> So even though it is commodity adjacent because it traffics in, you know, not mining or geology reports, it's not something you've touched. >> It isn't. I attempted in my 30s to be a technology investor and I was amazed at my lack of success. >> All right. Well then that's how you get success — is knowing what you're not good at.
31:46 Our second question is on Nations Royalty. This is an interesting company. We've got this question from Adam who likes the concept and the profile and the people behind it. A major positive is that it can potentially have major upside due to potential CEAA partnership as it takes on new projects. Maybe you could tell us a little bit more about that, Rick.
32:09 What are the chances of additional indigenous nations getting behind it? I think we should probably take a step back first and just explain Nations Royalty because it's very interesting. First Nations and Indigenous-led royalty company. >> I need to disclose first I'm a shareholder of Nations Royalty. I did it both because I believe that they have a durable competitive advantage in the royalty space which is to say greed.
32:35 But I also think what they're trying to do needs to be done. So there's a social mission at Nations Royalty that I'm very much attracted to. I'm attracted to the people too who I know well. Nations Royalty is an outgrowth of efforts by the Nisga'a nation, a coastal nation in northern British Columbia, that has thrown their social benefits, their royalty and their impact benefits agreements into a public company >> and raised the money.
33:02 And the idea is to use that starter package of royalties to assist indigenous communities across Canada and ultimately hopefully around the world in monetizing their own resource royalties and impact benefits agreements. Importantly, the company is run by First Nations and controlled by the Nisga'a. And the royalties that they have includes the KSM.
33:27 Includes the Brucejack, which by the way has caused Nations Royalty now to go not just cash flow positive but on a quarterly basis profitable. >> The Kitsault deposit — it has five or so royalties primarily in territory controlled by the Nisga'a and Tahltan in northern British Columbia. Mission is to aid First Nations across Canada in monetizing their royalties.
33:58 Something I'm hugely in favor of. And I'm also in favor of durable competitive advantage. And I don't think that there's another royalty or streaming company on the planet that has the advantage of being indigenous run, indigenous owned and empathetic to the needs of the potential sellers. >> So what kind of asset exposure are you getting? You think about a royalty company traditionally like a Wheaton Precious for example — can this become that, or is it set up differently? >> I would prefer to compare them with the
34:36 other third tier royalty companies, the other smaller starter royalty companies. I look for companies with durable competitive advantage and I think the durable competitive advantage that this company has is that they won't have to participate in auctions. They can go out to communities that they have familiarity with and empathy with as opposed to sympathy with and create new royalties.
35:04 I think the first step if they're able to do it would be to consolidate in some measure the Tahltan royalties. Tahltan is a different First Nations band which has agreements on many of the same assets that Nations Royalty has as a consequence of their ownership by the Nisga'a band. The real growth, I think, will occur to the extent that Nations Royalty is able to do acquisition agreements with First Nations groups in the Abitibi >> both in Ontario and Quebec.
35:36 And I know that the focus of Nations Royalty is just that. These agreements take a very long time. Traditionally there hasn't been sufficient capacity among indigenous people to value and commercially transact on their royalties. This is changing very very rapidly and part of the mission of Nations Royalty is to empower indigenous groups to develop the administrative and technical capacity so that they can make the investment decision necessary to craft an agreement with Nations Royalty. Nobody else is
36:09 doing the missionary work that Nations Royalty is doing today. I'm extremely proud of this team. >> Wow. What an interesting pocket of the world. I'm so glad we got a question on that. I learned something about that. Let's go to our next question. This is a more oil question coming from Daniel in Markham.
36:27 The question's on International Petroleum or Athabasca. Are these a buy at current levels or should I wait for a pullback? I mean, the charts look the same kind of, but they're two very different exposures. Certainly geographically where they are. So, maybe you want to explain the difference between the two and how you think about them.
36:47 >> Disclosure of conflicts. I'm a big International shareholder. I'm not an Athabasca shareholder. >> I know why you're an International shareholder and that's because it's run by Will Lundin. Am I right? >> That is one reason. I have done very well over 40 years with the Lundin family.
37:07 I like management that's shareholder-centric because they're big shareholders. I also am attracted to it because I've been involved with their primary asset since it was controlled by Discovery West 30 years ago. I've been around that asset for 30 years. I know it extremely well. >> Which asset is it? Where is it? >> Blackrod.
37:26 It's a heavy oil asset in northeastern Alberta. That's right. >> About 700 million barrels. It was latent wealth until the Lundins threw $300 million at it. After which it became active wealth. It's important to know that relative to the size of the resource, there isn't much depletion that takes place.
37:47 And there is the ability to apply more capital on fairly attractive internal rates of return. Meanwhile, they have been very generous distributing what they saw as surplus cash back to shareholders, which I think continues. It's important to note that they're shareholder friendly because they're the largest shareholders. Athabasca is also attractive, but it's a much less pure play.
38:11 It is much more difficult for me to generate an earnings model with Athabasca because I have to model eight or 10 different assets. I have to model capital needs and all that kind of stuff. >> At International there's just one challenge. So it's much more attractive to me. As to whether people should buy it, if they like me have a five or six year time frame,
38:41 absolutely positively yes. If people have a trading orientation they might want to wait to see if the conflict in the Gulf resolves itself. If the conflict in the Gulf resolves itself, I think that the demand destruction that we've seen from higher prices probably in the very near term kicks the oil price in the teeth >> and might make oil and gas assets more attractive.
39:06 I think in five or six or 10 year terms. So for me, as a consequence of my belief in oil prices in 2030, I'm willing to take the near-term risk. >> I wonder too if we might see some consolidation. M&A was certainly an active couple of years. And I wonder if, you know, Athabasca always gets kind of thrown out there as a potential candidate, but do you think about that? Does that flow into why you like a stock or not? >> That's a wonderful observation.
39:40 I regard it as icing on the cake, but I also regard it as inevitable. We've learned in capital markets that bigger companies with bigger asset bases have larger trading volumes, attract more passive and ETF flows. The truth is that bigger companies just because they're bigger enjoy a lower cost of capital.
40:00 And I suspect that Athabasca is a prime target. My favorite Canadian oil equity for quite some time was ARC. As a consequence of knowing them well and attempting to compete against them for 30 years. Shell noticed the same thing. And I think that sort of thing is inevitable and I think as you suggest Athabasca, because of its capital efficiency and its very very very broad asset base, is probably a classic in terms of a company that perhaps should be acquired but may well be.
40:33 >> All right, I like that. We stay tuned for that. We've got a question on Dundee, one of your previous top ideas. This one coming from Margin of Safety on X. The stock's done really well. Do you continue to like it and do you think that it has the right strategy to continue to be successful for the long term? >> Yes is the answer.
40:55 I haven't sold a share despite the fact I've done very well on that. I've done business with the Goodman family for my entire adult life. The originator of Dundee, Ned Goodman, was a mentor of mine in my 20s and so I'm attracted to all things Goodman including his son Jonathan and now his grandson who are in Dundee.
41:13 I know and love and trust the Goodman family. What Dundee Corporation is very good at doing is making large capital investments in companies that are making the transition from advanced exploration to production and providing what I would describe as adult supervision, much like the Lundins do with International Petroleum.
41:36 I was in effect a partner of theirs in the grooming of Reunion until its sale to G2, and I was a partner too in their G Mining endeavor. So, I've benefited from their activities as merchant bankers. The company appears to be wanting to make a pivot from being merchant bankers to being active miners, something that in the past they did with the creation of Dundee Precious Metals.
42:02 >> And I reserve my comment on that until I see how they proposed to effect that strategy. But I need to say I have huge respect, huge admiration and also a great friendship with Jonathan Goodman who's the CEO. I take a lot of comfort from watching Jonathan for 40 years. >> So that's interesting.
42:23 I mean that is an odd transition, as you mentioned, to go from a financial play to a mining play but they've done it before. I know you say you reserve your judgment, but does that mean you don't want to deploy right now until you see how that shakes out? >> They're more useful to me as merchant banks. >> They have successfully made the transition in the past.
42:47 I watched Jonathan's dad build International Corona, which was hugely successful till a sale with Homestake. He spun Dundee Corporation out of it. They formed Dundee Precious Metals out of Dundee. They've done it successfully before. I've made money with them before, but every circumstance is different. >> They're more useful to me as a merchant bank.
43:09 But if they show me that they can make me more money as a miner, God bless. [SPONSOR READ REMOVED — EQB / EQ Bank]
43:38 [SPONSOR READ REMOVED — EQB / EQ Bank, cont.]
43:55 [SPONSOR READ REMOVED — EQB / EQ Bank, cont.] All right, let's squeeze in Vizsla Silver. We've got a question from Burton in Toronto, who's a longtime listener of our show and a Rick Rule fan.
44:18 What do you think about Vizsla Silver? Silver has just been very volatile. Vizsla itself is a Mexican silver play based in Vancouver. It's early, right? They're in the development phase. >> Yeah, this is a very instructive question. First of all, again, I'm a large shareholder of Vizsla. >> I'm a large shareholder of Vizsla for two reasons.
44:39 It's one of the highest quality undeveloped silver deposits in the world and it's run by a guy, Craig Parry, who I've known for an extremely long period of time. A guy who put me in NexGen at something like 30 or 40 cents on the way to where it is today. He has an unusual ability to sniff out good projects and assemble teams who advance them.
45:00 I've made a lot of money with Craig. That's the good news. Now, let's start with the bad news. The company operates in Sinaloa, which is the hardest state in a hard country and they operate in an area literally controlled by narcotraficantes, >> not controlled by the Mexican state. It's important to know that the company wouldn't tell you this and I have no means of assuring you it's true other than operating there myself.
45:27 But pretty obviously for some period of time there was an arrangement between most of the mining companies operating in Sinaloa and the Sinaloa cartel, otherwise they couldn't exist. >> Yeah. >> That came apart a year ago. The US government got control — well, the US government kidnapped Mr. Guzman who ran that cartel >> and the consequence of that is that the cartel fractured into at least two factions >> and what I perceive to have been an existing relationship with the cartel probably fractured too. One faction
46:01 of the new cartel apparently tried to negotiate with Vizsla, if we could call it, an impact benefits agreement. And they negotiated among other ways by kidnapping 10 employees of Vizsla and murdering them. >> Jesus. >> There's a famous old saying in Mexico, "plata o plomo," which means silver or lead — will pay you or we'll kill you.
46:26 That has been a challenge. I'm encouraged, if that's the right phrase, because Vizsla has very recently been able to hire new local people to replace those who were killed. >> I mean, why not just go somewhere else for your silver exposure? >> It's very difficult to find a deposit of this caliber elsewhere.
46:53 This is a 300 million ounce high-grade deposit with geometry that lends itself to mining in a region where you have miners. [laughter] This is easily one of the five best undeveloped silver deposits in the world. Would I prefer that this deposit be in Nevada? Yes, ma'am. But it isn't. So, I have to deal with what I have.
47:13 >> I mean, we had the CEO of Aluminina Metals, big silver deposit in Poland. Seems a lot more stable, a little less perilous. >> I'm a Luminina shareholder, too, and I'm a big Ross Beaty fan. You need to know that the political risk in Poland isn't being shot. It's the Polish government taking 80% of your profits by way of tax.
47:35 >> Yes. >> There's risks everywhere. What you need to juxtapose is the nature of the risk relative to the size of the prize. What I have learned is that every jurisdiction in the world is risky. The worst experience with political risk I ever had in my life came from the People's Republic of California.
47:57 Nobody shot me, but they delayed my permitting by 13 years. >> Wow. >> But what people need to decide, and frankly particularly people like me, old fat bald white guys, need to decide is whether political risk that manifests itself through the legislature in English is actually more deleterious to you than other forms of political risk including violence.
48:23 I have been very successful in my life investing in very high-quality projects in jurisdictions that were regarded as risky. I did well in South Sudan. I did extraordinarily well in Congo. I did well in Peru after the Shining Path were defeated. So I have a sense of humor for that.
48:49 By the way, I did extremely well in Russia for 24 years until one year where I did very very poorly. But I've experienced political risk in the People's Republic of British Columbia. I've experienced political risk under the Ayatollahs in Alberta. It's important to note that political risk can be Caucasian speaking English through the legislature.
49:16 >> Well, but we're not taking 10 people out. I think that that's >> that's very true. That's very very very true. And I suspect what you'll see, returning it to Vizsla — I suspect >> what you'll see, you will never see a press release from Vizsla that says we have successfully completed negotiations with the gangsters who killed 10 of our employees.
49:41 You will not see that press release. What you will see is that Vizsla will say that we have secured the financing and the regulatory approval for the beginning of substantial construction, which is their way of saying that they have successfully completed financial negotiations with the de facto government in Sinaloa >> or you won't.
50:09 >> So, it's a high-risk high reward play. Maybe don't go down there for a mine visit anytime soon. >> If they solve that problem, >> yeah, >> if not when — if they solve that problem, I think upon commencement of production, depending on how much stock they have to issue to fund the equity, this could easily be a five bagger or a 10 bagger. That's an if.
50:34 And by the way, the deposit grows, too. >> Okay, big if. Well, I want to do a rapid fire now because we've got a couple of questions still in the mailbag on small cap resource plays. The first one is Solaris Resources. I'd like to hear Rick's thoughts on Solaris. This one coming from Stewart on X. Copper Discovery primarily South America.
50:59 What do you like about it or not? >> I like the people. I like the deposit. There are real social and political challenges that they face, not fake ones — local opposition — so you need to acquaint yourself with that. There is not sufficient local capacity to govern this deposit that needs to be developed and you run the risk that a population that doesn't have sufficient capacity will make a poor decision. >> Where do you see it in three years? This question coming from Derek on X. What's the play here?
51:32 >> I own Copper Giant. It's aptly named. They need a lot more exploration expenditure. Drilling off porphyries like this is not [laughter] it's not something for small folks. It's backed by Frank Giustra who I've known for years and very good guy. It is in a very risky, very sociologically challenged part of Colombia, Paramo, which extends down into Ecuador.
51:55 The narcotraficantes and others go back and forth across a porous border. So your political and social risk here is challenging. Your exploration expense is challenging, but it is aptly named. It is a giant copper porphyry. I own it for that reason. And I own it because I've seen Frank Giustra be persistent and tenacious in resource development over the 40 years that I've known him.
52:19 Highly risky. People who can't afford to take speculative risks should look elsewhere. >> Okay, that's good perspective. The last one, and we haven't talked about this, is a tin play. Alphamin Resources. Would love to hear your thoughts about the tin market and Alphamin. This one coming from Curtis on X. >> The tin market's a spectacular market.
52:40 The high-tech applications of tin haven't been discussed well in the market, but they are there. Tin demand continues to grow and will continue to grow. Alphamin is the highest quality tin deposit in the world. Unfortunately, it's in northeast Congo. It's in a terrifying place of a terrifying country, but one that's treated me well.
52:56 I've been an Alphamin shareholder for 15 years. I'm delighted to say that my dividends on an annual basis exceed my basis in the stock. >> But I've taken insane, literally insane political risk. Think about a place where your concentrate, that is the product that you ship, has to travel by road.
53:18 Each truck is worth $6 or $700,000 in a place where people will murder other people for $200. The risks that you run shipping that concentrate, the risks that you run from the M23 guerrillas and others are very very high. This is also easily the highest quality tin mine in the world with lots and lots and lots of exploration upside.
53:41 The company, the management team of the company has done a superb job negotiating local challenges. They've also done a superb job building a mine that when it was built was 80 kilometers from anywhere. They had to construct the road, they had to construct the power. They've done a superb job, but there are very very very high risks.
54:03 >> Is there a safe tin play somewhere? [laughter] >> Not of this quality. >> Okay. All right. So that's where we're going for it. That's it. That's all we've got in the mailbag, but we've got your pro picks. This is brand new ideas. I think some have maybe a little bit safer jurisdictional profile, if I can say that.
54:25 And we're going to review your past ideas as well about a year ago. [SPONSOR READ REMOVED — ATB Financial]
54:58 [SPONSOR READ REMOVED — ATB Financial, cont.] Okay, so you were on September 25th, 2025. You came on, you talked about Sprott. You've done well on Sprott. It's up 65% since then. Do you continue to like it? I mean, it's a real financial play on the commodity story. Their AUM has exploded as commodities have moved higher.
55:20 >> It should be noted I'm a former employee of Sprott. I'm no longer an officer, director, or an employee. I'm a beneficiary. I own an eyelash below 10%. The only time I've ever sold stock is because I wanted to go below 10% for filing purposes. I continue to own stock in Sprott. I continue to be very friendly with the company CEO and know them very well.
55:43 I would suggest to Canadian investors who are invested in mutual funds and other products that they consider owning Sprott. The reason is usually in a managed product you pay a fee. If you own Sprott, you have an interest in the management fee from 60 products and you get paid a dividend. >> The arithmetic is: would you rather pay fees or would you rather receive a dividend? I think the answer to that is fairly clear.
56:09 >> This comes up a lot with Sprott, but in this game of asset management consolidation, very few of the major players have a commodity business because they've spent the better part of the last 10 years getting rid of it and closing down their offices. And I wonder if that makes Sprott a really easy target.
56:31 >> That's a spectacular observation. I wonder the same thing. I wonder if I'm correct about a nascent bull market in natural resources and precious metals, if one of the big financial supermarkets in the world, including Canada's own Manulife, doesn't decide that they need a natural resource silo. >> If they did, it would likely take them 10 years and billions of dollars to create it.
56:57 Perhaps they'd prefer to buy the best brand in the natural resources business, which is Sprott. I think your question is very well put. I kind of hope that doesn't occur depending on who the acquirer is because I've watched big financial services companies mangle their acquisitions. But I guess it's a pay me now pay me later thing.
57:21 If somebody bid me enough, would I sell? Yeah, I guess I'd have to. >> All right. Well, we'll see. We'll stay tuned to see what the year has in store for Sprott. You came on and you gave us a pick that really shocked me. Small cap, speculative, not afraid to go in unsafe jurisdiction — Rick Rule came on my show a year ago and said, "Just buy Exxon, the most blue chip energy company that there is."
57:46 And you did well with it, 45%. Do you still like it as kind of that nice clean, if we can call it, exposure to the energy trade? >> I do. I like the energy trade a lot. And I think most of your listeners, like most of the population, aren't prepared to do the work that would allow them to buy smaller, more speculative issues.
58:08 And there's an argument in a resource bull market that the beta — beta defined as the extent to which that industry outperforms the market as a whole — will be good enough in oil and gas. In other words, by 2030, 2031, you will have made enough buying the beta that you don't need to buy the alpha. And Exxon is the best of the beta.
58:29 They have a 30-year track record for capital deployment. That's fantastic. >> Unlike the industry, they have been making sustaining capital investments. And they have a discovery in Guyana that's big enough to move the needle on a company the size of Exxon, >> which is insane. >> Yeah. Okay.
58:47 So, we're still holding on to that one. The third pick was a little bit more of a complex story. EMX Royalty Corp., metal mining royalty company that ultimately, I think it was in November, merged with Elemental Royalty. So, did you roll over into the new company? Did you like that deal? >> I did.
59:10 I was a founding shareholder of both EMX and Elemental. [laughter] So I was involved in both constituents of that merger for 20 years. I have a high opinion of both teams. >> And I like the fact that they merged. They eliminated a lot of duplicate overhead. They increased the size and scope of the business. And as a consequence of larger market capitalizations, they now get a lot more index buying.
59:35 It was a case where two plus two equals five and a half or something. >> So yeah. >> Okay. So we're still holding on to all of them it sounds like. >> That's correct. >> And riding it through. So now you've come to us with a new batch of pro picks. Your first one is sort of like the Exxon of gold mining.
59:53 I could say it's Agnico Eagle and I feel like no one ever gets fired for picking Agnico Eagle. Because you take significantly far less jurisdiction risk than some of the stocks that we've already talked about. But why do you like the play here? What is it about the company and/or the exposure to gold? >> Amber, some people are better at things than other people.
1:00:17 I've been a shareholder of Agnico Eagle on and off for four decades. I've known all three of their CEOs. They are better allocators of capital than their competitors are. They have a great pipeline of projects. They continue to acquire and explore during the bad period. Now that the good period is here, they don't need to make overpriced acquisitions.
1:00:38 Although they will make accretive acquisitions. When I compare them with the other big gold producers, there's a qualitative difference between their people and their process. They also traditionally have treated their employees extremely well. Their turnover relative to their peers is a third of the level, which means that the esprit they have, but also their injury expense and their training expense, is substantially less.
1:01:06 I like talking to a generalist audience like yours >> in at least one big cap parlance, which is to say I want to help your audience capture beta as opposed to drifting down too deeply in the weeds with regards to alpha when they aren't prepared to accept the volatility or do the work that's necessary. >> [laughter] >> Now, you could choose others, right? You could choose a Barrick, you could choose a Newmont.
1:01:31 And I'm curious about the choice of Agnico, right? Because those tend to be the three. If you're going to be a generalist, you want gold, they just buy Newmont. >> If you look at the capital allocation decisions among Barrick, Newmont, and Agnico over the last 30 years, first, second, and third all belong to Agnico.
1:01:48 They've done such a better job that there's no comparison. When American — pardon me — investors like Canadian investors are ethnocentric and so you get a tremendous bonus for being involved in northern Nevada in the Carlin. I don't think that the Abitibi in Canada geologically or in terms of infrastructure is inferior to northern Nevada, >> but Agnico doesn't enjoy the same premium in the Abitibi that Barrick and Newmont do in the Carlin and I think that's
1:02:34 unfounded, particularly unfounded given the returns on capital employed and returns on invested capital that Agnico has delivered relative to either Newmont or Barrick. >> Okay, good perspective. The second one is Equinox Gold. Such an interesting story. It's a Ross Beaty story. We had him on the podcast a year ago and at that time gold was ripping and Equinox was left out of the rally because they'd had so many operational issues and Ross came on and owned up to all of them and said, "We're fixing them." And then literally
1:03:08 the next week or even might have even been the next day, the results blew the doors off and the stock ran hard. And now it kind of seems like it's a little — it's underperforming. It's back in the penalty box. So I think now is an interesting time to call out Equinox Gold. >> And that's why I did it.
1:03:29 They have done two acquisitions, Calibre and Orla. >> Yeah. >> In both cases, there were constituents who owned those stocks for a takeover and when the takeover occurred, their reasons to own the stocks went away. So, they sold the stock. This is a hiatus. You need to replace the people who were selling because they were in it for a takeover with people who understand that the value of the combination is worth more than the price of the constituent parts.
1:04:00 Equinox now has the ability to move their hard rock asset to nameplate capacity rather than economic completion. You've started to see the results of that flow through to the income statement. They are increasing the capacity of the Valentine mine which they acquired, and then they have the development assets that they acquired from both Calibre and Orla.
1:04:29 This is, as you suggest, a Ross Beaty company ultimately although he no longer runs the company. What that means is that after this acquisition you will see them shed a couple of tier 2 assets or tier 3 assets >> and you will see them redeploy that capital in the acquisition of another tier one asset. It's on place in time. This is a work in progress.
1:04:48 I've watched Ross do this for 40 years. I made my first investment with Ross Beaty if my memory serves me well in 1983 and he's been an extraordinary steward of my capital. Ross will suggest to you that he's retired which is not true. He is retired when there is good weather on Bowen Island in June, July and August.
1:05:12 In late September when the rains return to northern British Columbia, Ross gets bored in 48 hours and goes back to work for shareholders. And I'm delighted to say that we're entering into BC winter again. So Ross will be back at work on your behalf and my behalf in what, two short months. >> Good. Because I own Equinox. I'm ready for it to come back.
1:05:29 The final one — we've gone down cap now. We've gone for Agnico, Equinox a little spicier. And now Talon Metals, that's your speculative pick. About a billion dollar market cap. TLO on the TSX. Base metal play — think metals for batteries and EVs, cobalt, copper. They have a JV, too, with Rio Tinto, so it's a little, you know, they've got the endorsement from a big player.
1:05:58 >> Note, too, that 20% of the company's owned by the Lundin family. >> There you go. >> So, once again, I have adult supervision. Now, your listeners need to know that if my exploration thesis is wrong on Talon that they're going to lose 50% of their money. Let me repeat this again.
1:06:17 The attraction of this is an exploration play, Tamarack, that is mind-boggling, was brought to my attention by Bob Bishop who brought Voisey's Bay to my attention. >> Something that I have thanked him for for many years. If this works, you're talking about a deposit that is as profound, perhaps more profound, than Voisey's Bay.
1:06:38 Notice that I began that statement with the word if. If I'm wrong, people who buy Talon today will lose 50% by the time Amber has me back on the program, depending on when she does. So, >> that's right. You're going to have to own up to it. Whatever happens, >> I'm pretty good at that. >> You are. >> This is for people who are fairly technically sophisticated
1:07:04 and people who use money where if they lose that money it doesn't jeopardize their child's college education or frankly what they have for breakfast. People have looked to me in Canada for 45 years for high-risk high-reward recommendations in addition to the Agnico Eagles and the Exxons of the world.
1:07:30 And this is that. I tried to select three stocks that had varying degrees of risk, varying degrees of reward and would appeal to the different constituencies that are all part of your broadcast network >> and I appreciate that. I know the audience appreciates it every time you come on. Before we let you go, we've got the closing bell which is brought to you by [SPONSOR — Haliburton Post House].
1:07:54 We like to ask our guests — want to get to know you a little bit better. Although I really do feel like you left it all out on the table. We do know the real Rick Rule. But what does Rick Rule like to do for fun? >> I'm an outdoors guy. I like to kayak. I like to hike. I like to snorkel. I like to travel too with my wife.
1:08:16 Particularly work-related travel. I like people in Indonesia, local people showing me what they think is important. I call it industrial tourism. >> So I like that. I love to read. I probably read 2 hours a day. A bit too much of it business related, but I love to read. Increasingly, Amber, I really like mentoring.
1:08:43 I mentor various youth constituencies. And I really really really enjoy mentoring. I'm looking forward to being able to do more of that in my life. And I also enjoy what I think is amusing which is policy criticisms of existing legislatures online. >> Being a troll. [laughter] >> Yeah, that's probably accurate.
1:09:15 Well, I only criticize political regimes where I pay tax. But sadly, as a global businessman, that means that there's lots of politicians that I can criticize. >> And I will say you're equal opportunity — left, right, center, no one is immune from Rick Rule on the internet. >> Correct.
1:09:33 >> I appreciate it, Rick. Thank you as always for joining us. That's Rick Rule joining us from Rule Investment Media. [SPONSOR READ REMOVED — Haliburton Post House]
1:09:57 [SPONSOR READ REMOVED — Haliburton Post House, cont.]
1:10:14 [SPONSOR READ REMOVED — Haliburton Post House, cont.] Don't miss our next episode. We've got Jean-Francois Tardif on the show taking our questions on small caps and commodity stocks. We're going to continue that.
1:10:37 If you've got questions, you can email us questions@inthemoneypod.com or find us anywhere on social media @inthemoneypod. [music]