Rory Johnston — research hub
Rory Johnston · founder of Commodity Context, independent oil analyst ("professional barrel counter"), ex-head of commodity economics at Scotiabank.
Stock & name index
▲ Positive
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► Neutral / referenced
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▼ Negative
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Overall thesis
In one line: a structural oil bear caught in the largest supply shock ever: fundamentals bullish now (an acute deficit, record diesel cracks, China's hidden stock draw running out), positioning bearish near term, and a $40–50 Brent glut once the Hormuz war ends. He does not cover equities, so the hub carries macro views, not picks.
- Two surpluses around a deficit. He had Brent at ~$50 for 2026 before the war. The Hormuz shock put the market in an acute deficit between a trailing surplus and a forward one, and the forward glut has grown (non-OPEC Americas growth, weak demand, the UAE out of OPEC, starved producers chasing share). His post-war target: $50 or even $40 by mid-to-late 2027. (2026-SEP-18)
- Count barrels, not headlines. Hormuz is back to ~12 mb/d (~60% of pre-war) on real fresh loadings, but the Saudi East-West reroute was only a ~3.5 mb/d swing (not its 7 mb/d nameplate) and is now down for 3–5 weeks. The earlier official "10 mb/d" claims were exaggerations when made. (2026-SEP-18)
- China was the swing factor. The "Beijing swing" — a record 5.4 mb/d import cut — was a policy choice funded by ~200m+ bbl of invisible crude draws (plus diesel), made to protect China's Asian and European export markets. It was not demand destruction, it cannot last, and China is now buying again. (2026-SEP-18)
- Diesel is the stress point. NY Harbor diesel ~$220/bbl, cracks a record ~$113–114. China's teapot refiners are the release valve; a US diesel export ban before the midterms is the tail risk — global diesel would "break," US cracks would go negative and Western Canadian crude would suffer. (2026-SEP-18)
- Positioning over fundamentals, short term. Net spec ~4.5% of open interest across the big-6 crude contracts (diesel ~9%) means drawdowns will be sharper than rallies. He expects a $10–15 flush, then the uptrend resumes while the deficit lasts. (2026-SEP-18)
The product
From his own description in the 2026-SEP-18 interview.
What it is: Commodity Context (commoditycontext.com), an oil-market research newsletter that began in 2020, when oil went negative, and went behind a paywall after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. He now runs it with his wife as a family business. It covers crude and refined-product fundamentals and positioning. He says he does not cover equities. He also posts free commentary on Twitter (@Rory_Johnston) and Bluesky.
| Offering | What it is | How he runs it | Seen in the index |
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| Oil Context Weekly | Weekly roundup plus a chart pack of CFTC Commitments of Traders data | Published every Friday at market close, as soon as the COT data comes out; net spec normalized as a % of open interest across the "big 6" crude contracts (ICE/CME Brent, WTI, Dubai), plus products | Positioning read in 2026-SEP-18 |
| Research series | Multi-part deep dives on one question | For example, the "Beijing Swing" series: a product-by-product balance of China's crude and diesel demand checked against end-use activity | China thesis in 2026-SEP-18 |
- How it serves retail investors: barrel-level flow and balance numbers (Hormuz transits vs fresh loadings, net exports by terminal) to check against politicized headlines. He deliberately stays out of tribal bull/bear debates.
- Positioning data turned into a risk skew (whether the next big move is more likely a flush or a melt-up), which equity holders of oil names can apply themselves. He leaves "translating it into an equity call" to the reader.
Transcripts
One dated page per appearance — each has its stock table (when securities are named), talking points, and the saved transcript. Newest first.
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For personal study — not investment advice. Source material © Contrarian Codex / Commodity Context.