Spencer Jakab — Auto Parts Retailers Can Turn the Corner (WSJ Markets A.M., Sep 2026)

One-line take: O'Reilly (ORLY) — up close to 5,000% since the financial crisis, ahead of Apple — and AutoZone (AZO) have been hit by rising rates and gasoline prices; AZO is down 31% in a year and reports tomorrow, likely echoing the downbeat message from ORLY and Advance Auto Parts (AAP). Jakab calls that "a hopeful pattern": in 2008–09 lower-income customers deferred maintenance first, then repair demand surged as new cars became unaffordable and the fleet aged (AZO's best comps came in 2009, 2011, 2020, 2021), and heavy buybacks at depressed prices compounded it — AZO and ORLY beat the S&P 500 by 161% and 128% from the recession's start through 2011. Today's economy is healthier and the stocks sit at only modest premiums to their 10-year price/forward-sales averages, so it's not a 2008 bargain — but "time to start kicking the tires." (A columnist's newsletter — stances reflect how each name is framed in the piece.)

1. Stocks & names mentioned

A written WSJ Markets A.M. newsletter (no video), so the "At" column links to the article. The auto-parts retailers carry the column's argued view; AAPL and WMT are benchmarks, and the "Stocks I'm Watching" items (INTC, SMCI, AMD, PSKY, WBD, Société Générale, COIN, HOOD, MSTR), the One Big Chart item (LEU) and a reading-list link (DIS) are tabled as Neutral news mentions. Research legend: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

2. Key points

Ticker	Name	Research	View	What the article said	At
ORLY	O'Reilly Automotive	QT · SA · STK · FA	Positive	The best consumer stock since the financial crisis — up close to 5,000%, eclipsing Apple — on smart financial stewardship and a resilient model; rates and gas prices have stalled it, but deferred maintenance historically turns into demand as the fleet ages, it has repurchased more than half its shares, and it beat the S&P 500 by 128% from the 2008 recession start through 2011. Now at a modest premium to its 10-year price/forward-sales average: "time to start kicking the tires."	read ↗
AZO	AutoZone	QT · SA · STK · FA	Positive	Down 31% over the past year and reporting tomorrow, likely echoing peers' downbeat message — which Jakab calls "a hopeful pattern": its best same-store-sales years (2009, 2011, 2020, 2021) came when car sales were lousy; it has bought back about three-quarters of its shares since FY2007 and beat the S&P 500 by 161% from the recession start through 2011. Not as cheap as 2008 (a modest premium to its 10-year price/forward-sales average), but time to start kicking the tires.	read ↗
AAP	Advance Auto Parts	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	Named only as a peer — the competitor (with O'Reilly) whose downbeat message AutoZone is expected to echo; one of the three parts stocks that were down ~30% on average by fall 2008. No separate view argued.	read ↗
AAPL	Apple	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	Used as the control case rather than a pick — the stock most would guess as the best consumer performer since the financial crisis (first iPhone launched as the recession began), yet eclipsed by O'Reilly.	read ↗
WMT	Walmart	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	Cited as evidence, not a stance — in fall 2008 Walmart shares were up for the year while the three auto-parts stocks were down ~30%: food is a necessity first, spark plugs eventually.	read ↗
INTC	Intel	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	News mention ("Stocks I'm Watching"): higher premarket as the AI trade keeps finding strength after a rally that began again last week.	read ↗
SMCI	Super Micro Computer	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	News mention ("Stocks I'm Watching"): server designers higher as the AI trade continues to find strength.	read ↗
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	News mention ("Stocks I'm Watching"): chip makers higher as the AI trade keeps finding strength after last week's renewed rally.	read ↗
PSKY	Paramount Skydance	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	News mention ("Stocks I'm Watching"): +5% premarket as Paramount and a coalition of states suing to block its $81 billion Warner merger work toward a possible settlement — a $1.5 billion Paramount investment in California production on the table (WSJ report).	read ↗
WBD	Warner Bros. Discovery	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	News mention ("Stocks I'm Watching"): up more than 7% premarket on the reported settlement talks that could clear Paramount's $81 billion takeover.	read ↗
GLE.PA	Société Générale	SA · STK	Neutral	News mention ("Stocks I'm Watching"): the French bank targets cost cuts in a plan to boost profitability through the end of the decade, including wider use of AI; shares rose about 3%.	read ↗
COIN	Coinbase Global	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	News mention ("Stocks I'm Watching"): crypto-linked stocks rewarded as bitcoin surges to nearly $84,000, its highest level since January.	read ↗
HOOD	Robinhood Markets	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	News mention ("Stocks I'm Watching"): among the crypto-tied stocks rising as bitcoin nears $84,000.	read ↗
MSTR	Strategy	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	News mention ("Stocks I'm Watching"): the bitcoin-hoarding firm led the crypto-stock gains, rising more than 6% as bitcoin neared $84,000.	read ↗
LEU	Centrus Energy	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	Referenced only in the "One Big Chart" teaser: only two companies, both in Europe, hold uranium-enrichment capacity outside Russia and China; the American challenger hopes to disrupt that order and "could be a safer way" to bet on the nuclear renaissance. A teaser line, not an argued call (contrast the 2026-SEP-17 column, which lumped it with the too-hot nuclear cohort).	read ↗
DIS	Walt Disney	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	Passing mention — a "What I'm Reading" link: Disney is defying a summer slump in the theme-park industry with more promotions and package deals.	read ↗

The open — risk-on into a diplomacy week

Stock futures pointed higher (S&P e-mini +0.7%, Nasdaq-100 +1.2%); oil fell a fourth straight day (~$93); 10-year ~4.96%. Hopes for Middle East progress at the U.N. General Assembly and Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington stoke cautious optimism on trade.

The auto-parts paradox

Asked a year ago for the best consumer stock since the financial crisis, many would have said Apple. The answer was O'Reilly, up close to 5,000%, with AutoZone close behind.
Americans don't buy more cars than in 2007, each still has the same wipers and taillights, and EVs need no motor oil. The gains came from smart financial stewardship and resilient business models.

The stall — rates and gasoline

Rising interest rates and gasoline prices "foul even the finest engine": AZO is down 31% in a year and, reporting Sep 22, likely to echo the downbeat message from O'Reilly and Advance Auto Parts. Jakab calls it a hopeful pattern.

The 2008–09 playbook

With oil at its all-time high, financially pinched lower-income customers deferred maintenance and sales suffered first: by fall 2008 the three stocks were down ~30% on average while Walmart was up for the year.
Food is a necessity; eventually, so are spark plugs.

Repair demand runs inverse to car sales

AutoZone's best same-store-sales years — 2009, 2011, 2020, 2021 — came when new-car sales were lousy and the fleet aged. The sweet spot for parts is cars 4 to 11 years old.
Fixing a jalopy pays more when a new or lightly used car is unaffordable, increasingly so as wear and tear builds; snowy winters add traffic.

Buybacks compound the turn

Sales and sentiment turned several months into the last recession, and depressed prices gave these serial buyers of their own stock extra bang for the buck: AZO has retired about three-quarters of its shares since FY2007, ORLY more than half.
From the recession's start through end-2011, AZO and ORLY beat the S&P 500 by 161% and 128%.

Why it's not 2008 — and the call

Conditions were worse then (unemployment is half the 2011 level) and the stocks aren't as cheap: both sit at modest premiums to their trailing 10-year price-to-forward-sales averages.
Not the same bargains as 2008, "but it's time to start kicking the tires."

Stocks I'm Watching

AI trade strength lifts Intel, Super Micro, AMD; Paramount Skydance (+5%) and Warner Bros. Discovery (+7%) on settlement talks over the states' suit against the $81bn merger; Société Générale (+3%) on a cost-cut/AI profitability plan; Coinbase, Robinhood, Strategy (+6%) with bitcoin near $84,000, its highest since January.

One Big Chart — uranium enrichment

Only two companies, both in Europe, hold enrichment capacity outside Russia and China; Centrus Energy hopes to disrupt that and "could be a safer way to bet on the nuclear renaissance."

What he's reading & markets history

Links on the 10-year Treasury's climb to 5%, automakers stopping dealers from publicly competing on price, Disney promotions against a theme-park slump, the Iran war's tanker shortage, and "Bonds are finally interesting" (Damped Spring).
On this day in 1981, World Bank IFC officer Antoine van Agtmael coined the term "emerging markets" in an internal memo.

3. In plain English

A jargon-free summary of how each auto-parts name is framed in the column. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on the ticker's consolidated page.)

ORLY — O'Reilly Automotive Positive

O'Reilly runs a chain of auto-parts stores that sell to both do-it-yourself drivers and repair shops. Over the years since the 2008 financial crisis it has been an astonishing stock — up close to 5,000%, more even than Apple — not because people buy more cars, but because the business is steady and management spends its spare cash wisely, especially buying back its own shares (it has retired more than half of them), which makes each remaining share worth more.

Lately higher interest rates and pricier gasoline have squeezed its lower-income customers, who put off car repairs. Jakab's point is that this happened before: in 2008 the parts stocks fell first, then did very well as people who couldn't afford a new car kept fixing their old one. The stock isn't a screaming bargain — it trades a bit above its 10-year average valuation — but he thinks it's time to start looking.

AZO — AutoZone Positive

AutoZone is O'Reilly's closest rival and has done almost as well since the financial crisis. Its stock has fallen 31% in the past year, and it reports results tomorrow, probably with a gloomy message like its competitors'. Counterintuitively, its best years for store sales have come when new-car sales were bad — in 2009, 2011, 2020 and 2021 — because an older fleet needs more parts (cars 4–11 years old are the sweet spot).

AutoZone is an extreme buyer of its own stock, having retired about three-quarters of its shares since 2007; buying back shares when the price is low gives even more benefit. From the 2008 recession through 2011 it beat the S&P 500 by 161%. The economy is healthier now and the stock is not as cheap as it was then, so Jakab's advice is measured: not a bargain yet, but worth kicking the tires.

Summary derived from Spencer Jakab's WSJ Markets A.M. newsletter (a structured digest is saved in transcript.txt; the piece itself is copyrighted and not reproduced in full) for personal study. Not investment advice. © The Wall Street Journal / Dow Jones for source material.