Title: AI's Achilles' Heel: Why Everything Hinges on Anthropic & OpenAI | The Weekly Wrap Show: The Real Eisman Playbook — The Weekly Wrap (solo episode) Guest: Steve Eisman (host, solo) Date: 2026-08-14 (week ending Friday, August 14; recorded Thursday night, August 13) URL: https://youtu.be/sQCnVoHrN58 Length: 30:37 Note: Scripted monologue — already close to clean. Remove-only cleanup per skill Step 1: the [music] / [snorts] audio artifacts were deleted and a handful of stutters collapsed ("AI revenue AI revenue"→"AI revenue", "a bit of a of a vacation"→"a bit of a vacation", "billions billions of consumers"→"billions of consumers", "very high high"→"very high"). No words were changed, added, reordered or paraphrased; every (mm:ss) cue is preserved exactly where it was. Sponsor reads (Long Angle ~10:02-11:00, Upwork ~11:00-12:05, Rula ~20:22-21:21) are left in place — they are advertising, NOT picks. Auto-transcript garbles are LEFT INTACT here and corrected only in the analysis pages: "weekly rap"/"the RA"=the Weekly Wrap · "entropic"=Anthropic · "Coree"/"Cororee"/"Cororeweave"=CoreWeave · "moes"=moats · "securization"=securitization · "Cali"=Kalshi · "situational awareness"=Situational Awareness (the hedge fund forcibly liquidated in July) · "Jason Trent"/"Trannid"=Jason Trennert · "Chris Ferrron"/"Veron"=Chris Verrone · "Strategus"=Strategas · "Glenn Shore"=Glenn Schorr (Evercore) · "Wolf Gang Munch"=Wolfgang Münchau · "it Toro"/"E Toro"=eToro · "M East"=Middle East · "Becca Platsky", "Lakshmi Ganopathy", "Ryan Tunis" = as spoken. UNRESOLVED: "Caner" (29:13 / 01:10), the firm Ryan Tunis is said to be from — not identifiable from audio; left verbatim, not guessed. NUMBER GARBLE: at 13:12 the transcript says Meta's "Free cash flow was only 785 billion" — obviously wrong by a factor of 1,000 (his Jul 31 episode cited Meta FCF of $784M). Left verbatim here; the analysis pages state ~$785M and flag the garble. =====
00:00 In war news, President Trump announced that he would not resume bombing, but would instead rely on economic pressure, and this conflict is going to continue, I think, for quite some time. Despite all the doom and gloom out there, the market is back to all-time highs. There are, however, many commentators calling for a crash.
00:18 Tension levels are running very high. The dependency of the hyperscalers on anthropic and open AI is just huge and quite scary. Should anthropic and open AI fail, the margins of the hyperscalers will compress and business will return to slower growth. The entire AI chain goes into reverse.
00:36 This is the potential Achilles heel of AI. That is what I am watching most carefully. Hi, this is Steve Eisman and welcome to another episode of the weekly rap. This is for the week ending Friday, August 14th, but recorded Thursday night, August 13th. First, couple of housekeeping announcements. We are taking a two-eek break after this Monday interview August 17 with Jason Trent and Chris Ferrron of Strategus.
01:10 The RAP will also be on a twoe break and resume Friday, September 4th. Interviews resume on Monday, September 7, with a deep dive into property and casualty insurance with Ryan Tunis from Caner. Note that Wednesday Premium episodes will continue without a break. Just want to flag that on premium we will be dropping a two-part master class called How to Analyze Banks after Labor Day.
01:38 I do a deep dive into everything you need to know and understand about bank accounting and bank functionality. With banks playing an opaque role in private credit and the massive AI buildout, understanding the quarterly earnings announcements is critical, and this master class will give you the tools to find the message hidden in the numbers.
01:58 A quick update on premium pricing on Substack. Starting Labor Day, September 7th, premium for new subscribers will cost $20 a month and $200 a year. However, all current subscribers monthly and annual are completely locked in at the existing price for as long as you stay subscribed. As a reminder, premium subscribers get all episodes, ad free, master classes, weekly Wednesday deep dives, and more access.
02:30 Subscribe now before Labor Day and lock in today's rate. And now for the wrap. Since this is a slow week for earnings, it's a good time to give some thoughts on investing strategy and business strategy, the role of upstarts, and of course AI and why Bitcoin is no longer cool. So on this week's RA, we will cover number one, the war in Iran. Two, investing now.
02:52 Uncertain times require patience, not hysteria. Three, AI check-in. Four, timing is everything. Five, a check-in on software. Six, a few earnings reports. And seven, my thoughts on entrenched businesses versus upstarts and how they interact and why the winners win and the losers lose. In war news, negotiations have broken down.
03:18 However, President Trump announced that he would not resume bombing, but would instead rely on economic pressure. Now, last Wednesday, August 12th, on our premium Substack service, we interviewed Steven Cook of the Council of Foreign Relations, who is a M East expert. And after speaking to Steven, I have to conclude that a strategy relying solely on economic pressure will have difficulty succeeding.
03:43 The Iranian regime does not care if its people suffer. They care about the regime's survival. And this conflict is going to continue, I think, for quite some time. But as long as there's no bombing, the market will probably march higher. Since it's close to the end of summer, let's take a step back and discuss some things beyond the craziness of earning season.
04:03 Let's first pivot to investing in times of deep uncertainty and start with the market and the role of AI. Despite all the doom and gloom out there, the market is back to all-time highs. The S&P is up 13% and NASDAQ is up 14% for the year. There are however many commentators calling for a crash.
04:24 Tension levels are running very high. A few months ago, I too got cautious and sold some of my positions, but I'm still quite long. I just think it is premature to make that kind of a major market doom and gloom call. Why? Well, let's go back to the pregf world. Back then, my research revealed that the mortgage underwriting standards had deteriorated enormously.
04:47 But I also had access to an enormous database that could confirm or not confirm that thesis. My team and I purchased access to Moody's securization database. Every month, every securization, credit cards, subprime mortgages, autos, commercial real estate, etc. reported their credit data. Every month, each securization reported 30-day, 60-day, 90-day delinquencies and real estate owned and losses.
05:16 It was and still is an incredibly rich and robust data set. And starting in the summer of 2006, the credit data started to deteriorate very badly. And every month we would check the data and every month it reaffirmed our thesis. That's what gave me the confidence to short subprime paper.
05:38 There is no such data set with respect to AI. When open AI and anthropic go public, we will have some real data. Until then, we have supposition. Relying on supposition is by definition uncertain and uncertainty is uncomfortable. My message to investors is they need to deal with it. Stop rushing to call the top or the bottom.
06:00 Except that we don't have enough information to make the exact right calls and work with the information that we do have. Right now, what do we know? The economy is quite strong. Despite last week's weak employment data, the overall employment picture is still quite sound. The economy is growing. Bank credit data just reported mid July is benign.
06:21 And with respect to AI, hyperscalers continue to increase their capex budgets. And this week, the big news was Nvidia created a new financing technique for AI data centers. Nvidia is partnering with six large asset managers on a $500 billion financing push designed to treat compute infrastructure much like the commercial real estate toll roads or other assets you can borrow against.
06:44 Now this is not a brand new concept. It's a triedand-rue way to create a financial infrastructure to support a capex hungry growth industry. AI is here and it's going to grow and it's going to need financing. So picking the winners and losers is a challenge. predicting total disaster is just too emotionally tempting.
07:02 Now, this Nvidia deal is potentially very important. This is a $500 billion financing deal basically of AI data centers and the structure, while unclear, I'm assuming will involve securizations. So, what does this mean? Until now, AI data centers have been financed by the cash flow and debt raised by hyperscalers. Now, some of that financing will be done via securizations financed by major Wall Street firms.
07:28 It means that hyperscala free cash flow could I emphasize could improve. It also creates a boost in revenue for the banks and private credit companies that are participating. Since this new deal shows that there is as yet no slowdown in AI cap X to understand where the weakness in AI may lie, we need to dig deeper.
07:48 The hyperscalers at least on the surface are not the problem. The LLM providers are the potential problem. specifically anthropic and open AI. There just don't seem to be any moes around LLMs. Users switch between models all the time. Perhaps more importantly, the Chinese LLMs are openweight models that are much cheaper than the LLMs provided by Anthropic and OpenAI and enterprises seem to be using the Chinese models more and more.
08:18 Overcharging for tokens is going to be very difficult with good enough competition and Chinese AI seems to be good enough. It is possible, I emphasize possible, that a price war could break out. The reason this is important is that anthropic and open AI account for a very large percentage of hyperscaler AI revenue. Several research firms have put out reports estimating the contribution level of anthropic and open AI to Microsoft, Amazon and Google.
08:45 These reports state that 70% of hyperscaler AI revenue is from anthropic and open AI and 25 to 35% of total cloud revenue. Also, Oracle has a $600 billion backlog and half that backlog is from open AI alone. The dependency of the hyperscalers on anthropic and open AI is just huge and quite scary given that both companies lose billions and are reliant at this point on raising capital for their survival.
09:21 Since the cloud business is an everinccreasing percentage of the revenue of Google, Amazon and Microsoft in a sense the future of these companies is now very dependent on the future success of anthropic and open AI. It feels like a bigger version of situational awareness, a huge one-way bet. What's the hedge? There is no hedge for the LLMs.
09:43 The hyperscalers have existing franchises, though. Should Anthropic and Open AI fail, the margins of the hyperscalers will compress and business will return to slower growth. Anthropic and Open AI are racing to IPO. Again, there is still no data really to allow us to accurately measure the risk, but we all know it's there.
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12:29 And if they have to pull back, the entire AI chain goes into reverse. That's the risk. It's an incredibly important risk to monitor, and I'm monitoring it. But until this anthropic and open AI risk metastasizes, the AI story will continue. One thing I've learned from shorting is that timing is everything in investing in markets.
12:49 This bare case of entropic and open AI could occur but it might occur a year from now and for markets that is an eternity. Winners and losers are beginning to emerge amongst the big companies. Microsoft, Google and Amazon seem to be the hyperscaler winners. Oracle is questionable with its debt barely rated above junk. Meta is having problems.
13:12 It does not have the cloud business that the other hyperscalers have. Meta competes in the world of LLMs with Anthropic, OpenAI, and the Chinese providers. Meta is getting squeezed. For example, in its most recent quarter, revenue grew 28% but expenses soared 55%. Free cash flow was only 785 billion.
13:35 Moving on, in the world of software, the SAS apocalypse narrative seems to have taken a bit of a vacation as software stocks have all rallied off the bottom. I think that there will be many winners and losers. AI will supplant those companies that have been lazy in investing in their products. Winners will be new software companies creating AI focused value ad to client enterprises.
13:56 The existing software companies that update their models and provide real value to clients should also stay competitive. Uncertainty about private credit exposure to software is driving a lot of fear. We need data and that data will emerge soon. Debt refinancing of private credit existing software companies that are owned by private equity is around the corner sometime next year.
14:19 This is an area I will be spending more and more time on with future guests. Moving on to earnings. As far as current AI conditions go, they remain quite good. This week, both Coree, the AI data center company, and Super Micro reported. Now, Super Micro sells servers that go into data centers. Its chief competitor is Dell.
14:38 Both companies had good results. Coreweave beat on both the top and bottom line. Revenue climbed 112% versus last year. However, Coree is still an unprofitable company. EPS was a loss of about a dollar. The market focused on the revenue and the stock was up 19% on Wednesday. Also, on the conference call, management stated that demand and pricing remain very strong.
15:00 Super Micro has had problems executing of late. However, this was a good quarter. Super Micro reported better revenue and EPS and issued strong guidance. Revenue was up 91% versus last year. EPS of $1.70 was up 315% versus last year and the stock was up 19% on Wednesday. The results of Cororeweave and Super Micro should not be a surprise.
15:24 As long as the hyperscalers keep spending, AI infrastructure players like Cororee and Super Micro can't help but benefit. Again, the potential Achilles heel to the AI story is anthropic and open AI. That is what I am watching most carefully. Finally, Cisco reported and like its competitor Arista, Cisco is a big beneficiary of AI data centers.
15:47 EPS was a$122 up 23% versus last year. The company raised both EPS and revenue guidance. Again, not a surprise, but the stock was down after hours as the guidance did not meet the whisper numbers. Moving on, I want to talk about upstarts and established franchises and who wins and who loses and why. One way to frame the last few decades and AI is the transition of all industries from analog to digital.
16:14 Those entrenched companies that make the transition successfully survive and live to compete with the upstarts. Last week, I gave my TV recommendation list. Also last week, we dropped an interview on Premium on Substack with Peter Hoffman, a movie producer who was involved in some iconic films like Terminator 2.
16:32 This led me to think about the massive changes in the entertainment industry and whether those changes are harbingers for other industries. Let's go back to life before streaming. Yes, there was a time before streaming. Netflix started out as an upstart disruptor going after Blockbuster. And for you young people out there, you're asking, "What's Blockbuster?" Well, Blockbuster was a massively successful retailer that rented DVD movies.
17:01 The problem was you had to leave the house and go get your movie and then you had to return it in person. Netflix mailed you the DVD and you would mail it back. Simple stuff and not really a great business, but kind of clever. Here is where it gets even more clever. pre-streaming. Netflix was distributing other people's movies via DVDs in the mail.
17:22 They were the middleman like a specialty retailer. That means low margins and low flexibility in pricing. When streaming started, Netflix pivoted to an entirely different business model. Netflix went to all the major entertainment companies and offered to buy the rights to their old shows that were not currently in syndication.
17:44 The incumbent entertainment businesses said yes with glee. This was their titanic moment. They plunged into the iceberg, confident they had built businesses that couldn't sink. And boy, were they wrong. For the incumbents, this was found money with 100% margins. They would brag on quarterly conference calls about how lucrative the Netflix relationship was.
18:06 By the way, Netflix launched its streaming service in January 2007, just before the great financial crisis. and Blockbuster declared bankruptcy in September 2010. Staying home and watching streaming was now the new date night. The conduct of the incumbent entertainment companies is an example of how short-sighted managements can sometimes be.
18:28 CEOs are compensated annually. Quarterly and annual earnings drive stocks. Stock results drive compensation. By selling rights to Netflix, the incumbents beat their revenue and profitability projections. Management got paid. Hooray for them. But let me quote something that Lenin supposedly once said, and I don't mean John Lennon.
18:50 Lenin said, "We will hang the capitalists with the rope they will sell us." And that's what the entertainment incumbents did. They sold a rope to Netflix, and Netflix hanged them all. First, Netflix built a business on old shows. Now they owned their merchandise and could price it and distribute it as they chose.
19:09 Then they went into direct competition with the big producers and created their own shows. The incumbents did not see that coming. They thought they owned the production market and had moes that were too deep to breach. They were wrong and slow to adapt to their new competition because they had an existing high margin entertainment business and they feared that migrating to streaming would kill margins and they were right about that.
19:35 Streaming is a lower margin business. They chose margin over growth and it cost them everything. To preserve their margins, they sold their souls and eventually lost their businesses. Today, Netflix has a market cap of over 300 billion. The next biggest entertainment company market cap is Disney at 178 billion.
19:56 Paramount is at a lowly 10 billion. Warner Brothers is at 69 billion. Yet not all is great at Netflix anymore. The company is very profitable, but growth is slowing and growth investors don't like investing in companies where growth is deteriorating. The upstart has grown old and that's why the stock is down 21% year to date. Finding a therapist is hard enough, but finding one who actually takes your insurance, that's where most online therapy platforms fall short.
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21:21 Visit ruik.com/isman to get started. That's rule.com/isman. You deserve mental health care that works with you, not against your budget. Netflix is just one example of an upstart conquering an industry. We've seen this time and time again over the past 25 years. Amazon conquered retail. Bezos started with a business model of disrupting Barnes & Noble and other book superstores by mailing books from a garage.
21:51 He funded growth with massive capex and never cared about earnings. Investing with Amazon meant changing investment models and taking a risk that Bezos's vision would pan out. And that risk paid off. There are many other examples. That's why when an upstart in a different industry goes public, investors jump on the bandwagon, as they have seen this movie many, many times before.
22:16 But not all upstarts are created equal. Take Circle, the stable coin company. The company went public last summer on June 4, 2025 at $30, and it quickly climbed to 240 on June 20th, same month. Today at 71. Why the massive up and why the massive down? Circle provides stable coins as a store of value and for payments. Today, almost all of its business is in the form of a store of value in the crypto digital world.
22:46 For Circle to truly succeed, it has to break into the payment space. The price of the stock soaring to 240 reflects that investors assumed it would be easy for Circle to conquer the payment space. And in my view, those investors could not be more wrong. The payment space is notoriously difficult to disrupt because Visa and Mastercard dominate.
23:07 Visa and Mastercard link billions of consumers with hundreds of millions of merchants. Go recreate that. Since Visa and Mastercard went public in the early 2000s, every few years, Upstart show up claiming they are cheaper and will disintermediate Visa and Mastercard. And they fail every time. Visa and Mastercard are just well-run companies.
23:29 They are not going to get complacent like the incumbent entertainment companies. Any inroads that Circle makes in payments will occur by teaming up with Visa and Mastercard, not by fighting them. Fighting them is a hopeless cause. Circle has a very tough road to follow. It's competing with giants who are very competent and it only has a market cap of 18 billion.
23:49 Now, I don't think it has the financial strength to play this game for too long. If I was a CEO, I would try to sell the company. Since we've just discussed stable coins, let's now turn to Bitcoin and other digital currencies, another potential disruptor. My problem with Bitcoin is that no one has articulated, at least to my satisfaction, an investment thesis as to why anyone should own the asset class.
24:14 The most frequently cited thesis is that fiat currency, which is government currency, has been debased. True. And everyone should invest in Bitcoin as a hedge against that debasement. Maybe nice theory. The problem with it is that Bitcoin acts inversely to that thesis. If the thesis was correct, then on days where inflation is soaring and NASDAQ is collapsing, Bitcoin should be up and vice versa.
24:41 Instead, Bitcoin's correlation to NASDAQ has been very high until recently when it has just been underperforming. I failed to see the point of owning Bitcoin. The fact that it generally tracks the NASDAQ is the clearest indicator that there really is no thesis. It's not a disruptor yet. Maybe one day.
25:01 Year-to- date, Bitcoin is down 27%. Over the past 12 months, it has declined 46%. Also, I think something else is going on here. Bitcoin used to be cool. Young people traded it as their primary asset class. Over the last year or so, however, prediction markets have taken off. I can't prove it, but I think young investors have moved to prediction markets.
25:21 Bitcoin is no longer the cool toy. Cali is. Just ask DraftKings, which is facing the same fate as Blockbuster. Being early is no guarantee of survival. Adapting is. As another example, it Toro Group reported this week. E Toro is a global social investment and multi-asset brokerage platform that lets users trade and invest in stocks, ETFs, and cryptocurrencies.
25:45 But its biggest asset class is the trading of crypto. EPS was okay, but revenue was down 30% because of the decline in the trading of crypto assets. And the stock was down 14% on the day that it reported, which was on Tuesday, and is down 19% for the year and 47% over the past 12 months. Like I said, not so cool.
26:06 I discussed Bitcoin on our recent podcast on August 10 with Glenn Shore and Ken Worthington. this topic came up and Ken pointed out that Bitcoin at best is a store of value. Other digital currencies, he argued, have many more potential use cases. It's an interesting point, but count me a skeptic.
26:24 For any digital currency, in my view, to have any real impact, it has to break into the payment system. And now we are back to the problems facing Circle and stable coins. Regardless of the form of the digital currency, Visa and Mastercard are not going to roll over for digital currencies. They may look old, established, and easy to take on, but they will fight to the death to defend their turf.
26:46 Finally, let me flag issues involving boards of directors. On Wednesday, August 26th, on our premium Substack subscription, we will post an interview with Becca Platsky, host of the podcast called Corporate Gossip. Great name. We discuss several corporate scandals. It's a lot of fun. And we touched on the role or lack of a role of boards of directors.
27:06 Conceptually, a board of directors should act as a check on the authority of the CEO. The CEO is supposed to report to the board so that if the CEO screws up, the board fires the CEO. And it sometimes works like that. You do see boards fire a CEO, but most of the time it does not. In the real world, CEOs handpick the members of their board.
27:28 They are not going to pick someone who will challenge them. It's mostly window dressing. Sometimes you see a CEO ask a difficult question and their answer is quote that's a question for the board. What a joke. The CEO usually controls the board. Building your own moat can be a perk of being CEO.
27:47 I remember that during the GFC I decided for the first time to examine who sat on the boards of the major financial institutions. I was horrified. Horrified. Running a large financial institution is really complicated. There are lots of moving parts and the accounting is very complex. And yet most members of the boards of the major financial institutions had no background in financial services at all.
28:12 They were professors. They were once highly ranked government officials. Very nice. But they knew nothing about financial services. Cushy catered board meetings, nice annual compensation, and the status motivated them. Understanding the complexities was outside their wheelhouse. That's why they were handpicked as board members.
28:31 How are they ever going to challenge a CEO? They weren't. This last Monday, August 10, we released an interview with Glenn Shore of Evercore and Ken Worthington of JP Morgan. Combined, they covered much of the financial services landscape, and we explored the controversies surrounding private equity and private credit, as well as the fundamentals of the overall financial services sector, including the digital currency landscape.
28:53 So, check it out. This coming Monday, August 17, we will release an interview with Chris Veron and Jason Trannid of Strategus. Chris is the firm's market strategist and Jason is the firm's founder. We had a wide ranging conversation about equity markets, AI, private equity and private credit and general risks about the market. So, please tune in.
29:13 When we are back on September 7th, we will release an interview with Ryan Tunis of Caner and do a deep dive into property and casualty insurance. And finally, on our premium service on Substack, on Wednesday, August 19, we will release an interview with Wolf Gang Munch, author of Kaput, The End of the German Economic Miracle, a great book.
29:34 We discuss at length why European growth is so sclerotic and whether Europe is or is not doing anything to deal with these complex issues. So, please tune in. On Wednesday, August 26th, on our premium Substack subscription, we will post an interview with Becca Platsky, host of the podcast called Corporate Gossip. Lakshmi Ganopathy will be returning and will join us on Substack Premium Wednesday, September 2nd for some short picks. Please tune in.
30:03 The best way to support the Real Eizen playbook is to subscribe to Substack and to YouTube or your favorite audio channel. Subscriptions are free and we deeply greatly appreciate your support. And that's the wrap. This podcast is forformational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
30:24 The hosts and guests may hold positions in stocks discussed. Opinions expressed on their own and not recommendations. Please do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decisions.