Title: 'Big Short' investor Steve Eisman: I'm 'not a fan' of the upcoming SpaceX IPO Show: CNBC Squawk Box Guest: Steve Eisman (host, "The Real Eisman Playbook" podcast; ex-Neuberger Berman PM; of "The Big Short") Date: 2026-JUN-08 URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sL9hq7Qj1qc Length: ~8 min Note: Auto-transcript (ALL-CAPS chyron style), timestamps mm:ss. Saved for personal study. CNBC hit ahead of the June-12 SpaceX IPO: Eisman is "not a fan" — SpaceX has become wildly capital-intensive because it's now an AI bet (85% of its $28.5T TAM), AI is commoditized with no moats, and the valuation is "more than baked in." He won't short it. Also: Tesla-into-"X" risk, Google's $80B raise, token economics. ================================================================ (00:01) PRICES HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE BIT. THEY'RE STILL UP, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THEY HAD BEEN EARLIER THIS MORNING. OBVIOUSLY WE'RE WATCHING EVERYTHING THAT'S HAPPENING IN THE MIDDLE EAST VERY CLOSELY. JOINING US RIGHT NOW TO TALK ALL THINGS MARKETS IS STEVE EISMAN. HE IS THE HOST OF THE REAL EISMAN PLAYBOOK PODCAST. (00:17) AND STEVE, THANKS FOR BEING HERE THIS MORNING. THANK YOU. WHY DON'T WE TALK FIRST ABOUT THE SPACEX IPO? WE'RE ANTICIPATING IT'S GOING TO BE HERE LATER THIS WEEK. SURE. EVEN COME FRIDAY. >> I'M NOT A FAN. >> WHY EXPLAIN? >> LET'S SEE. IF YOU READ THE PROSPECTUS. I MEAN, THERE'S SOME AMUSING STUFF IN THE PROSPECTUS. (00:42) LIKE MY FAVORITE PART OF THE PROSPECTUS IS THAT ONE OF THE THINGS THAT SPACEX WANTS TO DO IS ASTEROID MINING. I THOUGHT THAT WAS KIND OF FUNNY. IT'S THERE'S SOME ASTEROID MINING GOING ON IN THIS SCI FI SHOW ON APPLE CALLED FOR ALL MANKIND. IT'S A CENTRAL THEME, BUT I THINK THE PROBABILITY OF ASTEROID MINING HAPPENING ANYTIME SOON IS PRETTY LOW. (01:06) BUT I THINK WHAT IS PROBABLY MOST IMPORTANT IN THE PROSPECTUS IS HOW CAPITAL INTENSIVE SPACEX HAS BECOME. SO IF YOU GO BACK TO FISCAL YEAR 2023 AND YOU LOOK YOU COMPARE REVENUE TO CAPEX. CAPEX WAS ONLY 42% OF REVENUE. AND IN THE MOST RECENT FIRST QUARTER, IT WAS 215% OF REVENUE. AND THAT'S BECAUSE BACK IN FISCAL YEAR 2023, SPACEX WAS NOT IN AI. (01:34) IT WAS JUST IN STARLINK AND SPACEX. >> THAT'S SO HARD. IT'S THE AI. >> IT'S THE AI THAT THAT IS INCREDIBLY CAPITAL INTENSIVE AND GROK, WITH ALL DUE RESPECT TO ELON MUSK, IS NOT A WORLD CLASS AI COMPANY. AND, YOU KNOW, I DON'T THINK ANYBODY SPEAKS OF GROK AS AS AT THE LEADING EDGE. >> NO. BUT THE THE COMPUTE POWER THAT THEY ARE BUILDING HAS EVEN PLAYERS LIKE ANTHROPIC. (02:00) >> NO, I UNDERSTAND, I UNDERSTAND THAT, BUT WHAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT IS AN UNBELIEVABLY CAPITAL INTENSIVE BUSINESS. SO IT'S GOING TO IT'S GOING TO NEED COMPANIES. IT'S NOT LIKE A SOFTWARE COMPANY. IT'S SO CAPITAL. I MEAN, I THINK THE MOST IMPORTANT NEWS LAST WEEK WAS THE FACT THAT GOOGLE IS RAISING $80 BILLION. (02:19) >> AND EVEN THOUGH IT'S GOT A TON OF CASH FLOW. >> BUT BUT IF YOU'RE GOING TO SPEND 100, WHEN IT SPENT $90 BILLION LAST YEAR, IT COULD HANDLE IT FROM ITS OWN CASH FLOW. WHEN IT'S SPENDING $180 BILLION, IT'S GOT TO RAISE CAPITAL AND NOT JUST CAPITAL STOCK. AND, YOU KNOW, THERE WERE RUMORS THAT META'S GOING TO RAISE CAPITAL. (02:40) MICROSOFT IS GOING TO RAISE CAPITAL. THE WHOLE TECH SECTOR IS BEING TRANSFORMED BECAUSE BECAUSE IT'S SO. >> FROM AN ASSET. >> LIGHT, FROM AN ASSET LIGHT BUSINESS TO AN ASSET INTENSE BUSINESS. AND THE OTHER THING I WOULD JUST POINT OUT IS DESPITE THE INCREDIBLE SUMS OF MONEY THAT ARE BEING SPENT, WHAT'S BEING PRODUCED IN TERMS OF LLMS AND AI, WHICH IS GREAT, IS NOT REALLY DIFFERENTIABLE. (03:09) THERE'S NOT THAT MUCH DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CHATGPT. IT'S VERY COMMODITIZED. PEOPLE ARE SWITCHING CONSTANTLY FROM ONE TO THE OTHER. THERE ARE NO MOATS. SO FOR ALL THE MONEY THAT'S BEING SPENT, WHAT'S BEING CREATED, IT SEEMS TO ME AT THIS POINT IS A COMMODITY. >> SO WHY DO YOU THINK BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY STEPPED IN AND TOOK $10 BILLION OF THAT? GOOGLE? >> I HAVE NO IDEA. (03:34) I MEAN, I REALLY DON'T KNOW. I MEAN, LOOK, GOOGLE, THERE'S A LOT OF OTHER REASONS TO OWN GOOGLE OTHER THAN AI, BUT THERE'S NO QUESTION IN MY MIND THAT THAT THE BUSINESS HAS BECOME CAPITAL INTENSIVE, NO MOATS. AND THE OTHER THING THAT'S HAPPENING BEHIND THE SCENES IS THAT UNTIL NOW, COMPANIES HAVE BEEN CHARGING FOR TOKENS WAY BELOW THE COST OF TOKENS. (03:58) AND THAT'S ACTUALLY STARTING TO CHANGE. MICROSOFT'S GITHUB IS NOW CHARGING ACTUALLY FOR THE TOKENS. AND IF YOU GO ON THE REDDIT BOARDS, YOU'RE SEEING THAT THERE'S A LOT OF PUSHBACK. SO IT'S GOING TO BE A. >> QUESTION WHETHER THE BUSINESS CAN SURVIVE. >> I DON'T KNOW IF SURVIVE BUT THRIVE. >> MAYBE I SHOULD SAY. >> IT'S GOING TO BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE HOW HEAVILY PEOPLE ARE GOING TO BE USING AI ONCE THEY GET ACTUALLY CHARGED FOR THE ACTUAL COST OF THE TOKENS. (04:23) >> ANDREW'S GOT A QUESTION TO ANDREW. >> HEY, STEVE, I DON'T DISAGREE WITH YOU THAT RIGHT NOW AI IS BEHIND IN TERMS OF RELATIVE TO THESE OTHER LLMS OR EVEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT THEY ALL BECOME COMMODITIZED. WHAT I DON'T UNDERSTAND THOUGH, OR I DON'T UNDERSTAND ABOUT YOUR YOUR TAKE ON ALL THIS IS TO SOME DEGREE, SPACEX RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF GETTING THINGS INTO ORBIT, GETTING TO SPACE IS A MONOPOLY. (04:51) IT'S A MONOPOLY POWER THAT ULTIMATELY WILL BE ABLE TO CHARGE, AT LEAST FOR SOME PERIOD OF TIME, MONOPOLY RENTS. I DON'T KNOW WHAT KIND OF MULTIPLE YOU PUT ON MONOPOLY RENTS, BUT WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE PROSPECT OF AND EVEN IF THEY DON'T HAVE MONOPOLY UNTO ITSELF, THE IDEA THAT THEY MAY BE TWO, THREE, FOUR, FIVE YEARS AHEAD OF OTHERS, ONCE OTHERS EVEN GET INTO THE SAME COMPETITIVE ZONE, WHETHER IT TURNS OUT TO BE, I THINK YOUR EXPECTATION IS NOT GOING TO BE A GOOD INVESTMENT. (05:21) AND THAT'S THE PART THAT I'M TRYING TO UNDERSTAND. I FOUND THAT THAT IT. >> IS. >> NEVER BEEN A GREAT BET TO BET AGAINST ELON. >> I GRANT YOU ALL THAT. BUT IF YOU LOOK AT. >> AND THAT HE SEEMS TO FIND NEW WAYS TO TO HE FINDS NEW WAYS CONSTANTLY TO MAKE MAKE MONEY, WHETHER IT'S THE GOOGLE DEAL OR THE ANTHROPIC DEAL, HE MAY ULTIMATELY BUY BUY TESLA, PUT TESLA INSIDE THE THING. (05:44) MAYBE THAT'LL I MEAN, I, I DON'T KNOW. >> LET ME ADDRESS IT. IF YOU AGAIN LOOK AT THE S ONE, THE TAM, THE TOTAL ADDRESSABLE MARKET IS DEFINED AT 28.5 TRILLION, 85% OF THAT TAM IS IN AI. SO EVEN IF EVERYTHING YOU SAY ABOUT SPACEX AND STARLINK IS TRUE, THE ENTIRE COMPANY IS BEING BET ON AI IN TERMS OF OF ITS FUTURE, NOT ON SPACEX AND NOT ON STARLINK. (06:19) THOSE ARE HIS WORDS, NOT MINE. >> DO YOU DO YOU EXPECT HIM TO BUY TESLA. I'M I'M EXPECTING THAT HE'S GOING TO USE THE STOCK PRICE PERHAPS OF SPACE TO BUY TESLA AND AND CREATE SORT OF ONE GIANT COMPANY CALLED X. >> I WOULDN'T DOUBT IT. I THINK IF IF I WAS A SHAREHOLDER OF SPACEX, THAT'D BE THE LAST THING IN THE WORLD I'D WANT HIM TO DO. (06:48) BUT I'M SURE HE'S GOING TO DO IT. I MEAN, IF YOU LOOK AT IF YOU LOOK AT TESLA, THE EARNINGS HAVE GONE STRAIGHT DOWN FOR THE LAST FOUR YEARS. EVERY SINGLE YEAR THEY HAVE GONE DOWN THE THE EV BUSINESS IS JUST NOT THAT GREAT A BUSINESS. IT'S ALSO A CAPITAL INTENSIVE BUSINESS THAT'S HIGHLY COMPETITIVE. YOU KNOW, CHINA PRODUCES EVS MUCH CHEAPER THAN, THAN THAN TESLA DOES. (07:12) I, IF I AGAIN, IF I WAS A SPACEX SHAREHOLDER, THE LAST THING I'D WANT WOULD BE FOR HIM TO BUY. >> YEAH. THERE HAVE BEEN PEOPLE WHO SAID THE WAY TO GET INTO SPACE X, IF YOU CAN'T GET A HOLD OF THE SHARES AT. >> IS TO. >> BUY TESLA. TESLA. >> YEAH. I LOOK I WOULDN'T DOUBT THAT HE BUYS IT. BUT LIKE I SAID, IT'S NOT SOMETHING I WOULD WANT HIM TO DO. (07:30) >> YOUR BIGGER CONCERN IS THAT THERE'S A LOT OF GOOD NEWS HERE, BUT YOU THINK IT'S ALREADY ALL BEEN BAKED IN TO EXPECTATIONS AT THIS POINT? >> OH, IT'S MORE THAN IT'S MORE THAN BAKED IN. I MEAN, THE THE 28.5 TRILLION TAM IS ALMOST AS BIG AS THE ENTIRE GDP OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. I MEAN, WHAT I LOVE ABOUT THE S-1 IS THAT IT READS LIKE A SCIENCE FICTION NOVEL. IT REALLY DOES. (07:50) >> PEOPLE WHO HAVE BET AGAINST ELON MUSK IN THE PAST HAVE GOTTEN BURNED. IF THEY'VE SHORTED HIM. IS THIS A. >> I HAVE NO INTEREST IN SHORTING THIS. I'M JUST NOT PLAYING. YEAH, IT'S JUST NOT SOMETHING THAT I THAT I THINK THE VALUATIONS [transcript ends]