Founder & chairman of Interactive Brokers (and its ~75% owner) — electronic-trading pioneer on rates, AI, prediction markets, system leverage and wealth preservation, with a running synthesis and per-appearance breakdowns.
Insider view (founder/chairman, ~75% owner): ~40%/yr earnings growth from a pro-trader platform with a rate-level-neutral spread, a bank charter to custody funds and lend more shares, and prediction markets he expects to become the majority of earnings.
Copied his phantom-money prediction market, got CFTC-licensed first and rebuffed his bid; sports volume is lucrative but faces a Supreme Court swaps-vs-bets ruling next spring.
No confiscation hedge — “they will immediately say that ownership of gold is illegal”; land, not gold, is the asset that gets returned (asset-class proxy).
Winner-take-most compute race: each buys all the capacity it can, compute prices fall, and they “will have to write down much of the compute that they bought.”
In one line: An AI optimist and rates agnostic — growth makes AI valuations (Nvidia 27× vs 70% growth) cheap, higher yields are fine while gradual, and prediction markets will become the bigger forecasting tool and most of IBKR's earnings — who nonetheless buys land against a 20% chance of a US socialist turn. Caveat: he chairs and controls Interactive Brokers, which sponsors the show — his IBKR views are an insider's.
Rates & the Fed. Inflation is an oil/war problem (stopping Iran's threat to the Strait of Hormuz beats a hike); he'd run the economy hot until the war ends, but expects Warsh's Fed to hike "to demonstrate that they are independent" (SEP-16). Not worried about the 10-year above 5% while the rise stays gradual — only a sharp, sudden jump causes problems.
AI — very optimistic on the economy, not on the spenders. Valuations are low against earnings growth; open-source adoption alone would lift productivity everywhere. Hyperscalers must over-buy compute in a winner-take-most race, driving compute prices down and forcing write-downs. Don't slow down — China won't.
Prediction markets are the future of forecasting. Stock prices lack the macro/political/climate context investors need; event contracts will price it, experts will trade instead of sell views, and current AI can't learn new information. His phantom product inspired Kalshi/Polymarket; Kalshi's sports franchise faces a Supreme Court ruling next spring.
Leverage risk sits outside exchanges. Opaque bank OTC books are "a spaghetti" of counterparty exposure — the usual source of crises — though he's not worried at present.
Own land, not gold, for the tail. From communist Hungary: only agricultural land was ever returned; gold can be outlawed and confiscated.
Appearances
One dated page per appearance — each has its stock/name table, talking points, and the saved transcript. Newest first.