In short: Explicitly not owned on valuation discipline: "one of the reasons we didn't own Alcoa, for example, is cuz it got ahead of itself… it got up to 85 or something and went to about 45. Now, it's headed back up now." Aluminium is the one base metal Oxbow owns "not quite as much" of.
Alcoa is the big US aluminium producer. Oakley uses it as an example of price discipline rather than as a recommendation: Oxbow deliberately didn't own it "because it got ahead of itself" — the stock ran to about $85 and then fell to roughly $45.
His note now is that "it's headed back up." He owns "not quite as much aluminium" as copper, and the underlying story is real (a viewer who's an electrician pointed out data centres now run miles of aluminium conductor, substituting for copper) — but he wouldn't pay the earlier price for it.
29:17So, I think we're ahead of them, but and you're talking about silver, but one of the reasons we didn't own Alcoa, for example, is cuz it got ahead of itself. I don't know if you remember, it got up to 85 or something and went to about 45. Now, it's headed back up now. That's one of those things, but in the US is they're making those investments and everything and we look at them for sure but I think the things we really looked at are uranium. That's what probably the
In short: Link's aluminium leg of the same trade — "you have Alcoa too… Alcoa, Antofagasta, right. Same thing" — held on her view that both copper and aluminium go into deficit this year on electrification, EV and grid demand.
Alcoa is Stephanie Link's aluminium holding, and it sits in the same bucket as her copper position for the same reason: she expects both metals to be in supply deficit this year as electrification, EVs, grid upgrades and data-center construction all draw on the same limited mine output. "Alcoa, Antofagasta — same thing."
In short: Rated HOLD after a ~50% run since the 10/31/25 pick (~$54). An integrated aluminum major (bauxite → alumina → smelting) and a physical-layer electrification play — "like Hudbay in copper." Aluminum is at a four-year high on the Hormuz supply disruption (~3.5M tons of 2026 output at risk) plus structural EV/grid/data-center demand. The tension: "long aluminum, short power" — power-intensive smelting means the AI buildout that lifts aluminum demand lifts its biggest input cost. Fortress balance sheet, but cyclically-elevated/partly-geopolitical peak prices; fair ~$52-55 now vs ~$36-42 mid-cycle. HOLD sized for cyclicality; add on weakness toward the low-$40s (next print July 15).
Alcoa is one of the world's biggest aluminum makers — it digs the ore, refines it and smelts the metal. Aluminum is a core "electrification" material (cars, power grids, packaging, and now data centers), and its price just hit a four-year high because Middle-East tensions around the Strait of Hormuz threaten to knock out a chunk of 2026 supply. Haymaker recommended the stock in late October; it's since run about 50% to ~$54.
The clever-but-uncomfortable twist is that Alcoa is "long aluminum, short power": melting aluminum takes enormous amounts of electricity, so the very AI/data-center boom that drives aluminum demand also makes Alcoa's biggest cost — power — scarcer and more expensive. On top of that, today's high aluminum price is partly a geopolitical spike, so if Middle-East tensions cool the price (and Alcoa's earnings) could fall. The cheap-looking P/E is a trap because it's measured on peak-cycle earnings; on more normal "mid-cycle" prices the stock is worth roughly $36-42, versus ~$52-55 today. So Haymaker rates it a HOLD — keep it, but it's no longer a bargain; add only on a pullback toward the low-$40s, and watch the July 15 earnings for whether costs are stabilizing.
In short: Held it 3 years, lightened a little, still long: "aluminum is going to be a bedrock of the data centers and of the power grid rebuild" — the $2T US grid rebuild.
Alcoa is a big aluminum producer. He's owned it three years, trimmed a little, but stays long because "aluminum is going to be a bedrock of the data centers and of the power grid rebuild." The US grid is like a 75-year-old man being asked to lift weights — it needs a ~$2 trillion rebuild, and that takes enormous amounts of aluminum.
18:04We need a $2 trillion rebuild of the U.S. power grid. It's like a 75-year-old man trying to basically lift weights, right? By putting on the data centers on it. And that's what nobody's talking about. All these disconnects. Okay, so you do have an AI trade. Do you like when people call you a bear or a perma-bear? Do you feel like that is...
In short: "I did buy some Alcoa for my personal account a while back" (his personal account, not the newsletter portfolio). Aluminum near 5-year highs (US prices higher, up to ~$5,000/ton); was already bullish, supercharged by Gulf capacity shut-ins.
Alcoa is a big aluminum producer. Aluminum is near five-year highs (even higher inside the US, where he's seen ~$5,000/ton) — a bull market that was already underway and then got "supercharged" when Gulf-region smelting capacity went offline with the Hormuz closure. He stresses he bought this in his personal account, not the AIA newsletter portfolio — it's an example of the same pattern (a commodity at multi-year highs on a supply squeeze), not a model-portfolio call.
53:25I like to show these things. This doesn't mean, I did buy some Alcoa for my personal account a while back. We're near 5-year highs in aluminum prices, and they're actually higher in the US in many areas because I've seen prices as high as like $5,000 a ton. So yeah, there's just things like this all over the market that have been exacerbated. They were already bullish.
In short: Aluminum was part of last year's AI-infrastructure / hard-asset call and is "starting to flourish," though still a small fraction of the market.
Alcoa makes aluminum, a key building material for the electric grid and data-center buildout. It was part of last year's AI-infrastructure / hard-asset call and is "starting to flourish," though he notes these metals stocks are still only a small fraction of the overall market — i.e. lots of room left.
3:45trends. And that's what we were trying to do last year like like you said with AI infrastructure, aluminum, Alcoa, you know, EC cols last year have really started to flourish, but they're still just a fraction. Uh so here's an amazing step. The NASDAQ 100 has 41 trillion in it today.
In short: "The street hated Alcoa a year ago" — aluminum is a major contributor to the power grid / data-center buildout.
Alcoa makes aluminum. He notes the market "hated Alcoa a year ago." His thesis is that aluminum is a key material for building out the electric grid and data centers — so a metal nobody wanted becomes a beneficiary of the AI-power buildout.
18:43We're seeing a big shift into industrials versus the QQQs. In a higher interest rate, higher inflation regime, say 1968 to 1981, by the end of it 50% of the S&P's market cap was in industrials, materials, and oil and gas. Today we're like 14%. So 2026 is going to be this colossal migration back into energy companies, the companies that support the power grid on the copper side, the aluminum. Look at Alcoa — the street hated Alcoa a year ago. Aluminum's going to be a major contributor toward the power grid. Everyone's in the chips, nobody's in the infrastructure to support the chips.
Nothing matches this filter.
Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.