| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 401K | 755 | $9.75 | $7,361 | 0.30% | $9.89 | $-107 | -1.4% | — |
In short: Q2 net income fell as G&A jumped to $32M (legal/professional +$8.5M, payroll +$2.4M, stock comp +$2.9M) and sales & marketing rose 78.6% H1; the stock dropped, then management "got the message" and announced a $100M buyback on 8/13/26. On the plan to fuse life settlements with planning, securitization and asset management: "we will need to see proof of execution and costs getting in line. We will see."
Abacus buys life insurance policies from people who would rather have cash now than a payout later, then manages those policies as investments. Its ambition is bigger: to bolt financial planning, securitization (packaging those policies into tradable securities) and asset management onto the same client base.
This quarter the ambition cost more than it earned. Overheads jumped to $32 million — legal and professional fees, hiring for acquisitions, stock-based pay — and marketing spend rose almost 79% in the half. Profit fell and the stock dropped. Management responded within weeks with a $100 million buyback, which Polomny reads as them having "got the message."
He stays neutral because a buyback is a gesture, not evidence. The question is whether the spending turns into revenue that covers it: "we will need to see proof of execution and costs getting in line. We will see."
In short: Investor-day deep dive on the core thesis — "We are the market maker of time": every retirement, withdrawal and estate decision flows from how long someone will actually live, and lifespan data feeds all four verticals (Life Solutions, Asset Management, Wealth Advisory, Abacus Intel) into a $124 trillion 30-year wealth transfer. "I was impressed with the path laid out by management. They are moving well beyond life settlements… Lots of potential if they can pull it off."
Abacus started by buying life-insurance policies from people who no longer wanted them, which means its core skill is estimating how long individuals will actually live. Its pitch now is that this skill is the real product: "we are the market maker of time." Every financial plan — when to retire, how much to withdraw, what to leave behind — silently assumes a lifespan, and today the industry uses population averages for everyone.
The example management gave: a 79-year-old with $8 million was withdrawing 2% a year (~$160,000) to be safe. Once his actual health-based lifespan was estimated at about nine years, the "safe" number was wrong in the other direction — he could have taken $317,000 a year and still grown the portfolio. Abacus wants to sell that estimate into policy valuation, asset management and financial advice, aimed at the $124 trillion that Baby Boomers will hand down over the next 30 years.
Polomny listened to the investor day and came away impressed with the roadmap — but he keeps the condition attached: "lots of potential if they can pull it off." This is an execution story, not a proven one.
In short: Abacus Global Management held an investor day on 7/16/26. Management is arguably "too promotional," but "there is a path to a ten-bagger here." Notably, they had the author of the 100-baggers book give a talk at the conference — a telling signal of the return ambition.
Abacus Global Management runs a "life settlements" business: it buys life-insurance policies from seniors who no longer want them, paying cash today for less than the policy's eventual death benefit, then collects that larger payout later — and it also manages money (asset management) around those cash flows. Polomny has tracked it as a compounder trading at a modest multiple of guided earnings, and this note doesn't change that; it's a check-in after the company's 7/16/26 investor day.
He stays positive and frames the upside boldly — "a path to a ten-bagger," meaning he thinks the stock could plausibly rise about tenfold over a long horizon. He's honest about the main knock: management comes across as "too promotional" (they talk their own book aggressively), which he flags but treats as secondary. What he finds telling is that Abacus brought in Chris Mayer — who wrote 100 Baggers, the well-known book on stocks that return 100-to-1 — to speak at the conference: a sign management is deliberately framing the company around the long-hold, very-high-return mindset. He's sharing it as a name worth doing your own work on, not calling it a sure thing.
In short: Holding; no major news this month (AIA Portfolio).
In short: Q1 was a letdown vs euphoric expectations (revenue miss, slower sequential, H2-weighted guidance) but margins are very high, ROE/ROIC high-teens, cash flow up materially, guidance raised, buybacks continuing — at ~$8.97 it traded ~9× the FY26 adj-EPS guide. "Still bullish on this stock in the long term."
Abacus buys life-insurance policies from people who no longer want them, paying more than the insurer's surrender offer and collecting the eventual payout — plus a growing asset-management arm around that niche. The market prices it as a fast-growth story, so a merely-good quarter (revenue a bit light, expenses up, guidance leaning on the second half) knocked the stock down.
Polomny's point: the underlying machine still works — very high margins, returns on capital in the high teens, more operating cash, raised guidance, buybacks — and at ~$9 you paid only ~9× this year's expected earnings for it. He stays bullish long-term; the market just hasn't given the growth credit yet.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.