In short: Passing mention — #4 on the same slide, at 20.4%/yr. No view.
In short: The day's single biggest drag, and the desk holds through it. Terranova opens the show with it as the tape's explanation: "the weakness today, to me, it's attributable to Amgen. Amgen's 5% of the Dow, Amgen's down 9%." It falls ~10% in sympathy with the Novartis trial failure ("it makes a rival treatment to the one that failed") and is downgraded to Hold from Buy at BMO — which Belski, BMO's own strategist, calls "a great call by BMO" while still defending the company: it "has become this juggernaut in terms of cash… from a longer term perspective has the pipeline, has the balance sheet and has the continued wherewithal to do very well in that biotech slash pharma space." Terranova: "probably goes into a little bit of a consolidation phase, but I don't think you want to move away from what healthcare could provide… Amgen, it's right there at around 10% [revenue growth]."
Amgen fell about 10% without reporting any news of its own. The trigger was Novartis: its drug for a muscle-wasting disorder failed, and Amgen makes a rival treatment. Ordinarily a competitor's failure helps you; here the market read it as evidence that the whole approach may not work, so both fell.
Because Amgen is a heavy weight in the Dow, that single move accounted for much of the index's weakness on the day — which is why Terranova opens the show with it.
Neither panellist wants to sell. Belski calls the company a cash "juggernaut" with the balance sheet and pipeline to keep competing, while cheerfully endorsing his old firm BMO's downgrade of it that morning. Terranova expects a period of going nowhere, and notes that Amgen only just clears his own healthcare screen: revenue growth around 10%, where he wants double digits.
In short: Cited by Simpson as evidence of how large-cap pharma has been buying its growth rather than discovering it: "Lilly and Merck have been backfilling with acquisitions — even Amgen with Horizon Therapeutics… but someday that moves on and you need to have something behind it." A structural caution on the sector, not a call on Amgen.
In short: Growth outruns the cliff. Q2 revenue +10% Y/Y to $10.1B (a $680M beat) and adjusted EPS $6.29 ($0.67 beat), with product sales +9% on volume and 22 products posting double-digit growth. The growth portfolio is doing the work — Repatha +37% to $953M, EVENITY +38% to $714M, UPLIZNA +90% to $335M — and the six key growth drivers grew 26% collectively, now nearly 70% of product sales, more than offsetting Prolia's 32% decline to $759M under biosimilar attack. FY26 revenue guidance raised to $38.2–$39.4B (a $1.0B midpoint increase) and adjusted EPS to $22.30–$23.50. Two caveats: the obesity pipeline narrowed — early-stage AMG 513 was discontinued, leaving MariTide (now nine Phase 3 studies with three more planned) as the sole obesity asset, making its monthly-or-less-frequent dosing strategy load-bearing — and Tavneos remains an overhang, with Amgen submitting additional evidence in July for an FDA hearing while the drug stays on the market. "The patent-cliff replacement story strengthened materially in Q2, because growth is broadening faster than legacy products are declining."
In short: The second Simpson move: he bought more after a record high yesterday, in the sector that has been the top performer over three months but did nothing in the last one. "I'm hoping this is one of those stocks making new highs and goes higher. We didn't want to wait after the earnings for a pullback, because the earnings were just so good — Repatha, Evenity, a bunch of their other new therapies have all been adding to this accretive profit margin. They still have Maritide in the pipeline, which would be a one-month shot for weight loss if they can get there. They beat on the top line, beat on the bottom line, and raised guidance." And the sector kicker: "I think biotechs in general, as well as healthcare, can be some of the beneficiaries most quickly from AI. We bought it post-earnings and we tend to hold it for a long time."
Kevin Simpson bought more Amgen right after a record high, and explains why he didn't wait for a dip: "we didn't want to wait after the earnings for a pullback, because the earnings were just so good." The company beat on revenue and profit and raised guidance, with newer drugs — Repatha for cholesterol, Evenity for osteoporosis — adding profitably to margins.
The bigger prize in the pipeline is Maritide, which would be a weight-loss treatment injected once a month rather than weekly, a meaningful convenience advantage in the largest drug market of the moment. He also thinks the sector gets an AI dividend early: "biotechs in general, as well as healthcare, can be some of the beneficiaries most quickly from AI," since drug discovery is a search problem. "We tend to hold it for a long time."
In short: Baruch's final trade: "Amgen — now they have six growth drivers that are just kind of blowing it out of the water. They reported yesterday. Huge, huge breakout in that name." His entry caveat: "you probably buy it a little bit lower."
Bill Baruch's final trade. Amgen reported the previous day and the stock broke out sharply; his case is breadth rather than a single blockbuster — "six growth drivers that are just kind of blowing it out of the water." His only reservation is entry price after a big move: "you probably buy it a little bit lower."
In short: Bill — owned since the fund's inception. Same expensed-R&D distribution-platform model as Merck; "about as popular as it's gotten and still not even to a market multiple."
38:39They typically it's an R&D model in in — that's a typical biotech would be like grow your model sell it to someone else. Okay. And effectively these are distribution platforms with big R&D inside. — Yeah. And and so so there's that. And and so we've owned Amgen for a since the fund started and uh wonderful company.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.