In short: Barron's Stock Pick. Recovered 23% from the AI "SaaSpocalypse" selloff yet still 16x forward EPS (21x a year ago), 8.4% FCF yield, 2% dividend, ~1x net debt/EBITDA. H1 2026 revenue +5% cc to €3.3B, adj. EPS +7.3% to €1.75; Hospitality +9.2%, Air IT +8.7%. Catalysts: €1.2B Idemia Public Security deal (accretive, ~€800M revenue) and the Accenture travel-ad platform. Target $94 on the ADR (avg of $111 DCF and $77 re-rating) — ~40% upside.
When you search for a flight on a travel site, check in at an airport kiosk, or a hotel checks its room availability, there's a good chance Amadeus software is doing the work behind the scenes. It's a Spanish company that runs the booking and operations systems much of the travel industry depends on.
Early this year investors sold almost all software stocks on the fear that AI would make them obsolete. Amadeus fell too — but its business kept growing: sales up 5% and profit per share up 7% in the first half, even with a war and high fuel prices hurting travel. The argument is that airlines can't just swap it out: an unsold seat is lost forever, the system can't fail, and no airline could build its own at a reasonable cost. It is also buying a biometrics (face/fingerprint ID) business that adds revenue right away, and it has started selling travel-demand data to advertisers.
The price looks reasonable: about 16 times next year's earnings (it was 21 times a year ago), little debt, and lots of spare cash — an 8.4% "free cash flow yield" means the cash left over each year equals 8.4% of the company's market value. Barron's averages two valuation methods to a $94 target for the U.S.-traded ADR (AMADY), about 40% above the price at publication.
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