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ARM · Arm Holdings $267.44 +2.54 (+0.96%) 2026-SEP-18 12:48 EST

My allocationNot heldas of 2026-SEP-03 · allocation page ↗
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2026-AUG-01 · App Economy Insights · App Economy Insights (Substack newsletter) · Neutralmention · read ↗ · source page ↗$258.95

In short: Data center offsets phones. Q1 FY27 revenue (June quarter) +22% Y/Y to $1.29B ($20M beat) and non-GAAP EPS +29% to $0.45 ($0.05 beat), with licensing +23% to $574M and royalties +22% to $715M both clearing consensus (royalties beating after last quarter's memory-driven miss) — yet shares fell ~7-8%, the clean beat overshadowed by the smartphone slowdown and a broad semiconductor selloff on AI-spending doubts. Data center is doing what the bull case needs: data-center royalties more than doubled Y/Y for a second straight quarter, Neoverse shipments passed 1.5 billion cores, and Nvidia, AWS, Google and Microsoft are all deepening adoption; the AGI CPU pipeline now exceeds $2B through FY28, double last quarter's $1B — though guidance still reflects only that initial $1B on wafer supply. CFO Jason Child said royalty growth slows to low-to-mid teens in Q2 on smartphone weakness, mitigated by pushing customers to higher-rate Armv9 and Compute Subsystems. Q2 FY27 guide ~$1.38B (vs ~$1.34B) and EPS ~$0.47 (vs ~$0.45). Capacity is the real question — watch whether Arm raises the $1B. (Recap, not a stance call.)

In plain English

Arm doesn't make chips. It designs the blueprints and collects a royalty every time someone else's chip using its design is sold — which historically meant smartphones. Phones are slowing, and that is why the stock fell 7–8% despite beating on every line. The bull case rests on the shift into data centres, and that part is working: royalties from data-centre chips more than doubled for the second quarter running, its server designs have shipped 1.5 billion processor cores, and Nvidia, Amazon, Google and Microsoft are all leaning in further. The number to watch is a mismatch of Arm's own making — it says the pipeline of demand for its AI-server processors now exceeds $2 billion, but its official forecast still counts only $1 billion of it, because that's all the manufacturing capacity it has secured. If it raises that figure, the data-centre story is real enough to outrun the phone slowdown. A recap, not a call.

SOD $258.95 (open 2026-JUL-31)
2026-JUN-08 · Stacy Rasgon · The Real Eisman Playbook (Ep 63) · Neutralmention · ▶ 16:04 · source page ↗$354.00

In short: Passing mention: Nvidia's Grace CPU — 36 of them in every GB300 NVL72 rack — is built on the ARM architecture, putting ARM inside the agentic-CPU wave.

16:04Now, these are Nvidia's own CPU design. It's called a Grace CPU. It's based on the ARM architecture. We could talk about that if you want, but every GPU rack they sell has these CPUs. Okay, so that's one thing. However, — there is a much bigger demand for CPUs now just in general. And the reason is the rise of something called agentic AI.

SOD $354.00

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