In short: Giroux: autonomous-trucking leader; the AV-truck inflection is "imminent" (FedEx believes they're ready; Volvo targets 25,000 AV trucks by 2030, 220,000 by 2035). ~30% cheaper to operate, 2x utilization, +7 pts of margin on 600-mile+ routes (60% of the market); commercial partnerships with every OEM except Daimler; leadership from Waymo/Tesla veterans. His math: 20% AV share of a ~200B-mile market × 50% Aurora share by 2035 = $20B revenue at software-like margins; at 15x sales a $300B company — "a 25-bagger."
Aurora builds the self-driving system for long-haul trucks. Giroux thinks the industry is finally at its tipping point: FedEx says the tech is ready, Volvo has published targets of 25,000 driverless trucks by 2030 and 220,000 by 2035. The economics are blunt — no driver means ~30% cheaper operation, trucks that run twice as many hours, and much fatter margins on long routes (most of the market). Aurora partners with nearly every truck maker. His back-of-envelope: if driverless takes 20% of a 200-billion-mile market and Aurora keeps half, that's $20 billion of software-margin revenue by 2035 — potentially a $300 billion company, or "a 25-bagger." A venture-style bet with venture-style risk, sized accordingly.
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