In short: The publicly listed private-credit/levered-loan proxy (an ETF of BDCs) showing "capitulative flush behavior on significant volume" — its 12% dividend and 15-20% NAV discounts notwithstanding. The reflexive "catch-down" from software: ~25% of BDCs (per BofA) and 15-20% of private credit is software.
BIZD is an ETF that holds "BDCs" — business development companies, which are publicly traded funds that lend money to private, mostly PE-owned businesses (this is the listed face of "private credit"). Paulo's key point is reflexivity: a huge share of those private loans are to software companies (~25% of BDCs, 15-20% of private credit), and software is exactly the sector now cracking — partly on fears AI will gut it. So as software stocks fall, the loans behind them look shakier, and BIZD is showing "capitulative flush" selling (heavy, panicky volume) even with a fat 12% dividend and big discounts to the value of its holdings. It's the credit market catching down to the software equity crash — the contagion "boomerang."
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