In short: Barron's Stock Pick. Down 35% to €61 on a China-driven profit warning, but "one of the best-run auto makers in the world": ~9x trough 2026 EPS (€6.5 → €8 in 2027), 40% of book, $42B value (less than GM or Ford), ~€100/share of net cash + financial assets + finance-arm book. Capex falling, 8,000 layoffs, Neue Klasse EV platform; late-Sept capital markets day could lift payout to 40–50% and buybacks. Third Avenue: "existential risk priced into the stock."
BMW's shares have fallen by about a third this year, to a price lower than a decade ago. The main reason is China: local brands like BYD are winning customers from European luxury makers, BMW's Chinese sales dropped 30%, and the company warned its 2026 profits would disappoint.
Barron's argues investors have gone too far. This year is likely the low point for profits, the heavy spending on its new electric-car platform is done, and it is cutting costs. Meanwhile the balance sheet is unusually strong: counting its car business's net cash, other financial assets, and the value of its car-loan arm, there's roughly €100 of value per share behind a €61 stock. Put differently, the market is paying about 9 times a bad year's earnings and 40 cents per euro of book value.
A possible spark is BMW's investor day in late September, where it may promise to pay out more of its profit as dividends and buy back more stock. U.S. investors can buy the over-the-counter ADR, BMWKY (each worth a third of a German share).
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