In short: Canadian lumber value trap: ~2x normalized earnings, strong balance sheets (net cash), US-weighted sales. "The trees God planted in Canada" can't move — Trump's tariff complaints don't change where the wood is or where it's needed. Wait for lumber price to recover and the earnings appear.
Canfor is another of the three Canadian lumber names (it trades in Toronto; U.S. investors can also find it over-the-counter as CFPZF). The thesis is identical to West Fraser's: a cheap, financially strong producer with most of its business in the U.S., priced as if today's weak lumber market lasts forever.
Robotti's discipline here is to buy the depressed, "trapped" earnings and wait — supply is being cut, and once demand returns to normal, lumber prices and profits recover and the value gets unlocked.
58:36So — yeah, that's super interesting Bob. — Then the other industry I would say is lumber. There's a couple of lumber companies that trade for two times normalized earnings. A fraction what it would cost to build a business out, and Trump can do all he wants to complain about Canadian lumber.
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