In short: New pro pick #2 — a multiple compression with no earnings compression behind it. The host's homework frames it: down 42% over the year while "profits have gone up and so have the estimates… a stunning compression in a multiple and a former compounder." He rejects the past tense — "it's not a former compounder. No, because the stock hasn't performed. The company is growing. They're making acquisitions. Everybody would probably agree that this is an extremely well-managed company for multi-decades," still under founder Jay Hennick. The diagnosis: "one of the reasons it's down is the fear of AI… people think property management is not going to be — AI will hurt them, people will be able to do a lot of things without these type of companies down the road, which I'm personally skeptical." What that leaves: "stock is basically 12 times earnings, one of the cheapest it's ever been, and again it's growing, well managed and generates free cash flow. So this is my style. I like this kind of situation. The risk/reward to me is very attractive." The return maths without any recovery: "you're paying 12 times — things are not booming. So if they start booming, the earnings are going to go up a lot. And if they're not booming, they stay the same and you're generating at 12 times PE, you're basically getting an 8% free cash flow with growth, because the company will use that free cash flow to make more acquisitions. And so the multiple ultimately could expand sooner or later." A return-to-office recovery in commercial property is a "100%" kicker, not the thesis.
Colliers is a commercial real-estate services firm: leasing and sales brokerage, property management, investment management and an engineering consultancy. The stock has fallen 42% in a year — while profits and analysts' forecasts have gone up. That gap is the entire opportunity, and its cause is a story rather than a number: investors fear artificial intelligence will make services businesses like this obsolete.
Tardif is openly sceptical of that fear and gives a historical rebuttal that transfers well beyond this stock. Two hundred years ago bridges were engineered on paper. Computers arrived, then computer-aided design software arrived, and each time one could have argued engineering firms were finished. Instead the volume of engineering work grew and grew, because better tools made bigger and more ambitious projects possible. He expects AI to do the same. On brokerage the point is even simpler: the internet has existed for decades and people still use brokers to find a lease.
What is left is 12 times earnings — near the cheapest the company has ever been — for a business still growing, still acquiring, still run by its founder Jay Hennick, and generating roughly an 8% free-cash-flow yield that gets reinvested into more acquisitions. His two-branch summary is the reason the risk/reward appeals: if commercial property stays flat you collect that 8% with growth; if the return-to-office recovery continues, "the earnings are going to go up a lot" and the multiple can expand on top.
48:03So you've just got a stunning compression in a multiple and a former compounder. What's happening at Colliers? — Yeah. Well, it's not a former compounder. No, because the stock hasn't performed, right. The company is growing. They're making acquisitions. Everybody would probably agree that this is an extremely well-managed company for multi-decades — founded by Jay Hennick still. Yeah.
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