In short: Specialty-alloy leg of the physical buildout cluster — one of the ten power/industrial/materials/infrastructure names that "made the list" of Q2 top buys as the AI capex cycle spills out of the data centre.
In short: Pro pick (~$21B cap). The most acute pinch point in the aerospace supply chain — the nickel superalloy for jet engines (effectively a critical mineral); a near-monopoly with pricing power and 15 yrs of volume growth. Compounds earnings ~15–25%/yr regardless of Boeing/Airbus cycles; only left-tail is a plane accident.
Carpenter makes the special heat-resistant nickel alloy that goes inside jet engines. He calls it the tightest bottleneck in the whole aerospace supply chain — Boeing and Airbus have a $1 trillion-plus order backlog, and every part that touches a moving piece of an engine must pass an almost impossible safety-certification process, so nobody can swap in cheap Chinese metal. That locks Carpenter in as a near-monopoly with the power to raise prices.
Because the world badly underbuilt new planes for years (COVID, then Boeing's safety troubles), there's a long catch-up coming regardless of whether Boeing or Airbus has a good or bad year. He sees profits growing 15-25% a year for over a decade. The one real danger is a plane crash, which would dent the whole industry.
1:06:25Right? We're talking debasement. That is very pro-growth, pro-cyclical, pro-risk. So, uh one of the ways to play that is a company called Carpenter Technology, not a household name, but decent size, 21 billion market cap. Tell us what they do and what you're excited about. So, at the beginning of our talk, I spoke about the aerospace supply chain, Boeing and Airbus having a trillion plus in backlog over the next 10 years.
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