In short: "The other thing that people don't look at at all is the global coal industry. It's obviously a four-letter word, completely starved for capital, no one cares." Two near-term catalysts: Europe "seems very unlikely to be meeting their gas requirements going into the winter" so coal stockpiles get rebuilt (the 2022 playbook), and Indonesia — "what the US has been… to oil and natural gas" for coal — is looking to ban or severely limit exports. "There's some good attractive opportunities there."
Coal is the investment nobody will be seen holding — "obviously a four-letter word, completely starved for capital, no one cares." That is precisely the setup he looks for: an industry that cannot raise money cannot build new supply, so any increase in demand goes straight into the price.
Two specific things could supply that demand in the next few months. First, Europe looks "very unlikely to be meeting their gas requirements going into the winter," and the 2022 playbook after Russia cut the gas was to burn more coal in order to ration the scarce gas — so European utilities start stockpiling. Second, Indonesia is looking to ban or sharply limit coal exports. Indonesia is to seaborne coal what US shale is to oil — the swing supplier of the last fifteen years — so curbing it "would be no different than if the US said we're not going to export shale anymore… a big blow to the seaborne market."
He names no company; the call is that the commodity and the sector are mispriced because nobody is looking.
44:15It's obviously a four-letter word, completely starved for capital, no one cares, and there's been a number of things that have happened in the last 6 months, and I think a couple things in the next two or three months that could really give coal a little bit of a tailwind. Notably, Europe seems very unlikely to be meeting their gas requirements going into the winter.
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