In short: Brent $90-110 since the war; the SPR must be rebought as Western-Hemisphere heavy crude for years — a structural procurement tailwind for outside-the-Mideast producers regardless of when the Strait reopens.
The US drained a big chunk of its emergency oil stockpile and has to buy it all back over many years — specifically the heavy, high-sulfur grade its Gulf Coast refineries are built to run. That creates a steady, structural buyer for one particular kind of oil from a small set of nearby producers, which is the whole reason Ecopetrol is so well placed.
In short: Trading $90-110; the SPR has to be rebought over years at heavy/sour specs from the Western Hemisphere — a structural, multi-year procurement tailwind for the few producers configured to supply Gulf Coast refiners.
The US just drained a huge chunk of its emergency oil stockpile and now has to buy it all back over many years — and not just any oil. Its big Gulf Coast refineries were specifically built to run thick, high-sulfur ("heavy, sour") crude, the kind that comes from a handful of nearby countries like Colombia and Venezuela. So there's a built-in, multi-year buyer (the US government) for a specific grade of oil from a specific small group of producers. That's a structural tailwind for whoever fits that bill — which is what Prins's paywalled pick is about.
In short: Dominating headlines on the Hormuz transit-ban fear (Brent $72.48, WTI $67.02), but Prins expects the oil story to fade once the Strait reopens — unlike the structural deficits.
Oil grabbed all the headlines because Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint about a fifth of the world's oil passes through. But Prins is cautious on oil as a lasting trade: once the Strait reopens, the price spike unwinds. She'd rather own the commodities with permanent supply shortages (gold, silver, uranium) than chase a temporary war premium in oil.
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