In short: The ramp finally shows. H1 revenue +12% Y/Y to €33.2B ($37.8B), with Q2 +28% to €20.5B (€0.25B beat) and Q2 adjusted EBIT +54% to €2.43B (€0.24B beat). Airbus delivered 351 commercial aircraft in H1, up from 306, with the acceleration concentrated in Q2 after a dismal 114-plane Q1 — some analysts had feared a target cut like 2022, 2024 and 2025, but the Q2 cadence made the ~870 full-year goal look attainable. Commercial aircraft adjusted EBIT rose to €2.0B on volume, though weaker dollar hedges capped it; Defense and Space kept overdelivering, nearly doubling adjusted EBIT to €487M on order intake up to €9.3B. Two watch items: free cash flow was negative €1.2B on a planned inventory build, and the Pratt & Whitney engine shortage still gates the new rate targets (70–75 A320s a month by end-2027). FY26 guidance reaffirmed (~870 deliveries, ~€7.5B adjusted EBIT, ~€4.5B FCF) with a new 2029 bar of €12–13B adjusted EBIT set last week. Roughly 519 aircraft must ship in H2 to hit 870 — watch whether the monthly rate holds or the back-half concentration strains suppliers again. (Recap, not a stance call.)
Airbus has cut its delivery target late in the year three times in four years, so the only question that mattered was whether it would do it again. It didn't: it delivered 351 aircraft in the first half against 306 last year, with the acceleration concentrated in the second quarter after a dismal first, and profit jumped 54%. That was enough to make the full-year goal of about 870 look reachable. Two things to keep watching. Cash flow was negative €1.2 billion because Airbus is deliberately building inventory ahead of the ramp, and a shortage of Pratt & Whitney engines still limits how fast it can go. And the arithmetic is demanding: roughly 519 more aircraft have to ship in the second half to hit 870, so either the monthly rate holds or the back-half crush strains suppliers again. A recap, not a call.
In short: Cited with Boeing — the ~$1T aerospace backlog bidding for the same critical materials as defense, the grid and data centers.
3:30Boing and Airbus have a trillion dollars of backlog over the next 10 years. Now throw in the space economy which is going to compete for the exact same materials and backlog that Boeing and Airbus are trying to source. We have the grid right anytime it gets a little bit cold in Texas. The Eurot the Texas grid's not connected not connected to the rest of the US grid.
In short: The other half of the aerospace backlog story; like Boeing, it certifies parts so won't switch to cheap nickel alloy — which is why he owns the alloy maker (Carpenter) instead.
Airbus is the other half of that aerospace backlog. Same reasoning as Boeing: it must use certified parts and can't drop in cheap nickel alloy, which is exactly why he owns the alloy maker (Carpenter) rather than the plane maker.
6:51supply chain, that's where all the alpha is generated at a stock selection level. And I can tell you I have never seen so many CapEx cycles happening simultaneously at the same time. Let me just give you a few examples, right? One, we have a gigantic aerospace CapEx cycle. If you look at the backlog of Boeing and Airbus, it's a trillion dollars plus over the next 10 years.
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