In short: Barron's follow-up — still a buy. Down ~17% to $107 since last year's pick (over-shipping to Dollar General/Target, weak organic guide, Iran-war drop to ~$50) but more than doubled since. August raise: FY27 sales +19% (~$1.95B; ~6 pts organic + ~13 pts rhode), $404M EBITDA with +20bp margin; ~8% growth expected FY28. Margin leverage could drive double-digit EPS growth. ~29x NTM vs 37x in the past year: "Don't give up on this name."
e.l.f. sells low-priced makeup and skincare, mostly through big retailers, and has grown by taking customers from older, pricier brands. Barron's recommended it a year ago and it went badly: e.l.f. had shipped more product to stores like Dollar General and Target than they could sell, so the next year's orders looked weak; then the war with Iran and high energy prices scared investors about shoppers' budgets, and the stock briefly halved to about $50.
Barron's still likes it. In August the company raised its forecast: sales should grow about 19% this fiscal year. Most of that comes from buying rhode, Hailey Bieber's skincare brand, but about 6% is growth from its existing brands — a lot better than last year's gloomy outlook, in an industry that barely grows overall. That means e.l.f. is still winning market share.
The profit angle: e.l.f. spends heavily on social-media marketing. If sales keep growing faster than that spending, profit per share can grow faster than sales. At about 29 times expected earnings — below the 37 times it sustained in the past year — Barron's thinks the stock, now around $107, has further to go.
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