In short: Cedar Creek Partners (Eriksen Capital): a hard-numbers microcap gas pitch, given entirely in figures. "Last trade $22.08, 46.4 million shares outstanding (Fairfax owns 49.3%)," a gas E&P across "Haynesville and Bossier shale in E Texas and N Louisiana, Eagle Ford in S Texas and Marcellus and Utica in Appalachia." Balance sheet: "book value as of March 31, 2026 ~$24.77 per share. Modest debt of $81 million. Capex budget for 2026 of $431 million." Their basis: "purchased for $17.83 per share in late 2025, or under 4x our estimate of Q4 run rate net income… 2.1x adjusted EBITDA," assuming $3.75 gas — and "every $1 per mcf increase is worth about $3.00 in EPS." The conclusion: "we believe it is worth $60 to $80 per share in a sale."
Exco is a small natural gas producer traded over the counter rather than on a main exchange, with the Canadian insurer Fairfax owning nearly half of it. Cedar Creek's pitch is arithmetic, not narrative.
They bought at $17.83 a share against an accounting book value of about $24.77 and debt of only $81 million. At the purchase price that was under four times their estimate of annual profit and about two times cash earnings. The leverage to the gas price is dramatic: every dollar rise in the price per thousand cubic feet adds roughly $3.00 to earnings per share, on a stock trading around $22.
Their conclusion is the sort a private buyer would reach rather than a stock-market one: in a sale they think the assets are worth $60 to $80 a share.
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