In short: Historic (2017) Muddy Waters short on the Ghanaian open pit, then Asanko Gold: overlaying the block model on the unfolding mine showed rock being removed from exactly where the model "had been smeared," plus a pattern of shifting company explanations — "a very successful short for us." No current view on Galiano; the stance is the historic short.
In 2017 Muddy Waters bet against Asanko Gold, which ran an open-pit gold mine in Ghana; the company later renamed itself Galiano Gold. Miners estimate how much gold is underground by drilling holes and building a "block model" — a 3D grid of estimated grade between the holes. If you stretch a few good results over far too much rock ("smearing"), a mine can look profitable on paper when it isn't. The report that caught Brick's eye matched the parts of the pit actually being dug against the parts of the model that had been stretched, showing the problem as it happened, and the company's explanations kept changing. This is a historic short that worked; he gives no view on Galiano today.
9:02And what this research report had done, really taken work from block modeling and then overlaid that over the actual mine as it was unfolding, and could basically show you that the places within the mine that rock was being removed from were lining up with places that the block model had been smeared. And so that for me was a real light bulb moment where I was like, "Wow, you can actually show people in real time how this is a fraud.
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