In short: The highest-conviction new short, framed as a mispricing of what the business actually is: "GBFH as a short. It's a bank with like 50% downside if you're worried about interest rates. It's a $1.4 billion bank, valued as a gaming payments platform, but really an undiversified economy hotel monoline. This is half of the book." In other words the market pays a fintech multiple for a concentrated, rate-sensitive lender to budget hotels.
This is a short built entirely on a category error. The market is valuing GBFH at $1.4 billion as if it were a payments-technology company serving the gaming industry. Strip the label away and it is a bank — and specifically a bank whose loan book is concentrated in one thing: lending against budget hotels.
Two problems compound. Concentration means there is no diversification to absorb a downturn in that one sector. And a bank's loan book is directly exposed to interest rates, which are sitting at multi-year highs. So the business carries a bank's risk while trading on a technology company's multiple. Singh sizes the downside at about 50% "if you're worried about interest rates," and notes this position is half the short book.
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