In short: Flagged as a fresh idea after record Q2 results, raised guidance and an extra $750M buyback: "one of the biggest tech growth stories… effectively like an Uber/delivery company based in Singapore," $11B market cap with ~$4B net cash, ~$3.7B revenue and ~$700M of EBITDA this year, revenue +22%, on-demand GMV +21%, quarterly profit $235M "much higher than expected," adjusted EBITDA +54% y/y, and $1.7B of cumulative buybacks since 2024 with the new authorisation worth 5-7% of shares. Down ~50% from its 12-month peak — "so it is cheapish… could be an interesting one to take a look at." No big position yet.
Grab is the Uber of South-East Asia — ride hailing, food delivery and payments, run out of Singapore. It just reported a record quarter, raised its full-year outlook and added another $750 million to its buyback.
The reason Singh finds it interesting is the balance sheet against the price. The whole company is worth about $11 billion, but roughly $4 billion of that is cash it already has, so the operating business is being valued at about $7 billion while producing around $700 million of profit before interest, tax and depreciation this year, on revenue growing 22%. The stock is down about half from its 12-month peak, and the buyback now running is worth 5-7% of all the shares outstanding — $1.7 billion repurchased since 2024.
He has no meaningful position yet: "it could be an interesting one to take a look at."
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: The overhang shrinks. Q2 revenue +22% Y/Y to $997M (~$6M beat) and adjusted EBITDA +54% to $168M — the 18th consecutive quarter of growth — with margin expanding to 17% from 13%. On-demand GMV $6.5B (+22% constant currency) and Monthly Transacting Users a record 54 million (+17%), though most growth is still user additions: GMV per MTU rose just 4% cc. The regulatory fear proved narrower than priced: Indonesia cut GrabBike commissions from 20% to 8% on July 1, but the rule applies specifically to two-wheel passenger transport — not GrabFood, GrabExpress or four-wheel mobility — so Q2 barely reflects it, yet Grab raised FY26 guidance with the rule already in effect. Quality-of-earnings note: the $234M net profit was flattered by a $307M one-time gain from consolidating Superbank, partly offset by $183M of fair-value losses, so the $19M operating profit and $168M adjusted EBITDA are the cleaner reads. Segments: Deliveries GMV +24% cc with adjusted EBITDA +53% to $96M and margin 1.8% → 2.3% of GMV on operating leverage and advertising; Mobility GMV +18% with transactions +28% as cheaper offerings expanded usage, adjusted EBITDA +16% to $191M though margin dipped on driver-supply support amid higher fuel costs; Financial Services is the accelerator — revenue +59% to $134M, loan disbursements +72% to a record $1.2B, gross loan book $2.3B (nearly triple Y/Y on the Superbank consolidation, but still double organically), segment EBITDA improving to −$15M from −$26M, plus the completed $425M Stash acquisition in July (a profitable US investing platform with 1M+ subscribers). Guidance: revenue up $55M to $4.10–$4.15B (+22–23%) and adjusted EBITDA to $720–$740M (+44–48%) — with management explicitly saying part is inorganic (Superbank and Stash). Capital allocation is more aggressive: prior buyback completed and another $750M authorized (cumulative $1.75B since 2024) with net cash liquidity still rising sequentially to $5.4B. The new risk: Taiwan extended its review of the $600M Foodpanda acquisition to October 27, citing competition concerns in what would remain a duopoly. Bottom line: core GMV above 20%, Deliveries margins expanding and Financial Services scaling — but H2 is the first period with the full Indonesia impact, and the Taiwan deal now faces a tougher path. A disclosed author holding. (Analysis, not a stance call.)
Grab is Southeast Asia's ride-hailing, food-delivery and payments app. Sales grew 22% to $997 million and its core profit measure (adjusted EBITDA — earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) jumped 54% to $168 million, the eighteenth straight quarter of improvement. A record 54 million people used it monthly.
The reason the stock had been under pressure was Indonesia, which forced Grab to cut the commission it takes from motorbike-taxi drivers from 20% down to 8%. That sounds devastating — but the rule covers only two-wheel passenger rides, not food delivery, parcels or cars. Grab raised its full-year forecast with the rule already live, so the feared profit warning simply didn't arrive. That is the "overhang shrinking."
One accounting caution: the reported $234 million net profit is misleading. It includes a $307 million one-off bookkeeping gain from taking full control of Superbank, an Indonesian digital bank, offset by $183 million of investment write-downs. Strip both out and the business made $19 million of operating profit — small, but genuine.
The fastest-growing piece is now lending and financial services: revenue up 59%, new loans up 72% to a record $1.2 billion, and the loan book at $2.3 billion (double even excluding Superbank). Grab also bought Stash, a profitable US investing app, for $425 million. It is buying back its own shares more aggressively too — another $750 million authorised — while still holding $5.4 billion of net cash.
Two things to watch. First, the second half of the year is the first full period carrying the Indonesian commission cut, so the real damage is still to be seen. Second, Taiwan's competition regulator pushed its decision on Grab's $600 million purchase of Foodpanda's local business out to 27 October, warning the combined company would leave a two-player market — so that deal is less likely to complete than it looked three months ago. The author owns it; analysis, not a recommendation.
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