In short: Belsky: "we love this travel space. We've owned Hilton and Marriott for a long time as well. We think travel's where people are spending their money" — the long-held hotel leg of the same consumer-spending thesis that has him owning Expedia in two portfolios.
Hilton is one of two hotel names Brian Belsky has owned for a long time, held on the same conviction that drives his Expedia position: "we love this travel space… we think travel's where people are spending their money." In an economy where consumers are selective, travel has been the category they keep choosing.
In short: Mid-scale rebounds — on data centers. Q2 revenue +7% Y/Y to $3.34B ($20M beat), adjusted EPS $2.29 ($0.02 beat), adjusted EBITDA $1.05B clearing the high end of guidance; system-wide RevPAR +3.9% on a 5% jump in the US. Q3 adjusted EPS guidance fell short at $2.28–$2.34 against a $2.43 consensus. CEO Chris Nassetta named mid-scale and upper mid-scale in the US (limited-service hotels at moderate prices) as the biggest flip — from negative last year to strong growth — and tied it to an unexpected driver: the AI data-center buildout, because the contractors and engineers doing that work stay in mid-range hotels, not luxury. The drags are concentrated and mostly known: Middle East and Africa RevPAR fell about 30% on the Iran conflict (better than feared; now guided to a high-single to low-double-digit full-year decline), China RevPAR dropped 2.2% on government restrictions curbing group travel, and CFO Kevin Jacobs flagged $17M of timing items plus ~$20M of Middle East impact that kept Q2 outperformance from flowing through. FY26 RevPAR guidance raised to 3%–3.5% (from 2%–3%) and adjusted EPS to $8.89–$9.01, net unit growth held at 6%–7%; Q3 RevPAR +4% on the World Cup before Q4 softens on calendar shifts and midterm elections. "If data center spending is really driving mid-scale growth, that demand shouldn't fade until the buildout does." (Recap, not a stance call.)
The standout detail in this issue comes from an unlikely place. Hilton's biggest improvement was in mid-priced, limited-service US hotels — a segment that was shrinking last year — and its CEO attributed it to the AI data-centre construction boom: the contractors and engineers building those sites stay in mid-range hotels, not luxury ones. It's a rare, concrete second-order read on where AI capital spending actually lands in the real economy, and it implies that demand persists as long as the buildout does. The offsetting drags are geopolitical and known: Middle East and Africa revenue per room fell about 30% on the Iran conflict, and China fell on government limits to group travel. Hilton raised its full-year outlook, though next quarter's profit guidance came in below expectations. A recap, not a call.
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