In short: "I'm a big International shareholder" — and the case is a single asset he has followed for three decades. Blackrod, "a heavy oil asset in northeastern Alberta… about 700 million barrels," was "latent wealth until the Lundins threw $300 million at it. After which it became active wealth." Why the economics work: "relative to the size of the resource, there isn't much depletion that takes place. And there is the ability to apply more capital on fairly attractive internal rates of return," while "they have been very generous distributing what they saw as surplus cash back to shareholders, which I think continues… they're shareholder friendly because they're the largest shareholders." Run by Will Lundin: "I have done very well over 40 years with the Lundin family. I like management that's shareholder-centric because they're big shareholders." The modelling advantage over Athabasca is stated as the reason he prefers it — "at International there's just one challenge." Timing guidance splits by horizon: for a five-or-six-year holder, "absolutely positively yes"; a trader "might want to wait to see if the conflict in the Gulf resolves itself," because an armistice would let demand destruction "kick the oil price in the teeth." He takes that risk himself "as a consequence of my belief in oil prices in 2030."
This is a single-asset bet on a heavy-oil field called Blackrod in north-eastern Alberta, holding roughly 700 million barrels, and Rule has been watching that specific piece of ground for thirty years — since a previous owner held it. That is the sort of edge he means when he talks about a fifty-year rolodex.
Two features of the asset make the economics unusual. It depletes slowly relative to its size, so unlike a shale well — which gives up most of its oil in the first eighteen months and demands constant redrilling — the production does not evaporate if spending pauses. And more capital can be added to it at attractive rates of return, so the company can grow without buying anything. Meanwhile it hands surplus cash back to shareholders, which he expects to continue for a structural reason rather than a promise: the Lundin family are themselves the largest shareholders, so distributions to shareholders are distributions to management.
He prefers it to Athabasca on a practical ground rather than a quality one — one asset can actually be modelled, where eight or ten cannot. His timing advice splits by horizon and is unusually specific. If you hold for five or six years, buy it now: "absolutely positively yes." If you trade, wait, because a ceasefire in the Gulf would release the demand that high prices destroyed and "kick the oil price in the teeth" in the short run. He takes that near-term risk himself because his conviction sits on the 2030 price, not the 2026 one.
36:47— Disclosure of conflicts. I'm a big International shareholder. I'm not an Athabasca shareholder. — I know why you're an International shareholder and that's because it's run by Will Lundin. Am I right? — That is one reason. I have done very well over 40 years with the Lundin family.
In short: "I don't have a three ranking yet, but they're really truly knocking on it." The Lundins are producing ~50,000 bbl/day from the Cold Lake heavy-oil deposit and "making so much money that they are able to move into phase three self-funded without debt while maintaining substantial dividend payments" — with ~12–13 years of proved-developed-producing reserves in phases one and two, so no cash-flow hiatus unrelated to the oil price. He has a call with the whole Lundin family next week.
International Petroleum is the Lundin family's heavy-oil producer at Cold Lake in northern Alberta — roughly 50,000 barrels a day. Rick has followed the deposit for 30 years and it is closing in on his top tier: "I don't have a three ranking yet, but they're really truly knocking on it."
What earns the upgrade is the funding picture. The company is generating enough cash to build its next major expansion ("phase three") out of its own pocket — no new debt, no issuing shares that dilute existing owners — while still paying substantial dividends. That is rare in oil, where growth is usually paid for by someone else's money.
And the base is durable: even before phase three, the existing phases hold about 12–13 years of proved developed producing reserves — oil already drilled and connected, needing no further capital to flow. So the only real interruption risk to cash flow is the oil price itself.
56:05Okay. Oh, Asymmetric Research. Let's round out here. We're tapping on the hour. He says, "Hi guys. Hope you're well." Doing well. He says, "International Petroleum. Does Rick have a three ranking yet?" I don't have a three ranking yet, but they're really truly knocking on it. I have an upcoming call next week with the whole Lundin family where I look forward to getting an update on International Petroleum.
In short: "An odd special situation" — a ~50k bbl/day heavy-oil producer controlled by the Lundins, major capex behind it and "just starting to absolutely gush cash." Extra upside if Carney & Trump debottleneck Keystone to feed heavy-oil-starved US Gulf Coast refiners.
International Petroleum is a small (~50,000 barrels/day) heavy-oil producer controlled by the Lundin family — a well-regarded Canadian resource dynasty. Rick calls it "an odd special situation": its big spending is finished, so it's now "absolutely gushing cash" instead of pouring money into projects.
The extra kicker: if Canada and the US agree to unclog ("debottleneck") the Keystone pipeline, more Canadian heavy oil can reach US Gulf Coast refineries that are starved for exactly that kind of crude — a direct boost to a small producer like this one.
46:23and an odd special situation called International Petroleum, a heavy oil producer controlled by the Lundines, whose major capital investments are behind them, just starting to absolutely gush cash. If Mr. Carney and Mr. Trump can agree on debottlenecking the Keystone pipeline, enabling the sales of more Canadian heavy oil to heavy oil starved US Gulf Coast refiners.
Nothing matches this filter.
Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.