In short: Belski extends the GLP-1 logic into staples, sceptically — and then concedes the tape. "Then you can throw in Mondelez. Let's throw in Coca-Cola. Let's throw in General Mills… because at the end of the day, people are not eating those names." Lebenthal's one-line verdict on the group: "consumer staples has been nauseous."
Mondelez makes snacks and confectionery — Oreo, Cadbury. Belski brings it up to try to defeat the GLP-1 argument by extending it: if appetite-suppressing drugs explain fast food, then they must explain packaged snacks too, "because at the end of the day, people are not eating those names."
The trouble with the reductio is that it does not embarrass anyone. Lebenthal simply agrees — "consumer staples has been nauseous" — and the group has in fact de-rated. Sometimes the absurd conclusion turns out to be the observed one.
In short: North America turns. Q2 revenue +4% Y/Y to $9.4B ($150M beat) and adjusted EPS −3% to $0.73 ($0.05 beat) on operating declines and higher interest expense. Organic sales grew 2.2%, well above the ~0.9% consensus, with North America organic +3.4% — a sharp reversal from Q1's 0.5% crawl — and CEO Dirk Van de Put claiming share gains in every category. Emerging markets still lead: Asia/Middle East & Africa +7.1% and Latin America +8.4% on distribution expansion (100,000 stores added in India; Brazil now at 1 million). The margin story flipped from Q1's cocoa hangover — adjusted gross margin +20 bps to 34.0% against a ~32.8% consensus after Q1's 270-bp compression, with COO Luca Zaramella calling cocoa "a very different place" from the crisis and citing a 0.5 million-ton surplus. Europe is the new soft spot at −3.5% organic as Mondelez held trade stock in check through a heat wave. FY26 organic revenue guidance raised to at least 2% (vs ~1.9% consensus) while adjusted EPS growth was held at flat-to-5%, reinvesting any upside to protect 2027 — the bottom-line hold despite a raised top line is the tell that management still sees enough risk to reinvest. (Recap, not a stance call.)
Mondelez (Oreo, Cadbury, Milka) spent the past year absorbing a cocoa price crisis that crushed its margins. That has flipped: its chief operating officer says cocoa is now "a very different place," with a half-million-tonne surplus, and gross margin rose instead of falling. The bigger surprise was North America, which went from crawling at 0.5% growth to 3.4%, with management claiming share gains in every category, while emerging markets kept compounding on sheer distribution — 100,000 new stores added in India, a million now in Brazil. Europe is the new weak spot. The revealing detail is that Mondelez raised its sales forecast but left its profit forecast alone, saying it will reinvest any upside — companies do that when they still see enough risk ahead that they'd rather buy insurance than book the profit. A recap, not a call.
In short: #22, yield 3.5%. Oreo, Cadbury and Milka across "over 150 countries, focusing heavily on biscuits and chocolate." The distinguishing organisational point: "unlike other conglomerates that centralize everything, Mondelez allows local managers to tailor products and marketing to specific regional tastes." The moat is the price point — "people don't stop buying Oreos during a recession. The low price point and high brand loyalty make their revenue streams relatively stable" — plus emerging-market middle-class growth. Cocoa cost inflation and GLP-1 demand effects go unmentioned.
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