In short: Raised by Martenson, not rated by Rozencwajg: Mosaic "cut back their phosphate production pretty hard," probably on the sulfur price, which "went from 300 to 1100 a ton" — the one price signal in this crisis that "makes sense." Rozencwajg's answer is the sector view, not the stock: fertilizer exposure up "a little bit," not full conviction.
Mosaic is one of the largest producers of phosphate and potash crop nutrients. It comes up as evidence rather than as a stock pick: the host notes Mosaic "cut back their phosphate production pretty hard," and suspects the reason is sulfur, which you need to turn phosphate rock into usable fertilizer and whose price has more than tripled.
Rozencwajg doesn't rate the shares. His answer is at the commodity level — fertilizer availability is genuinely tight, and G&R has added a little exposure without full conviction. The signal worth keeping is the behaviour: a major producer choosing to make less fertilizer because its input costs have exploded is a supply cut in a market the world is already short of.
1:01:01— Yeah, I mean Mosaic cut back their phosphate production pretty hard and I'm not totally clear if that was because of the sulfur issue. I suspect it is, probably the price of sulfur. Sulfur by the way traded exactly like what I would expect something to trade for when you get a 50% disruption of global exported supplies.
In short: Trades risk-off in war (no sulfur access → costs spike after the Ras Laffan hit) while nitrogen peers trade risk-on. Badly beaten up, "probably going to bounce" once the conflict resolves; long-term "okay" (precision-ag is a headwind — could cut fertilizer use ~50%).
Mosaic makes crop fertilizer (phosphate and potash). Oddly, it falls when there's war, while rival fertilizer makers rise — because making phosphate needs sulfuric acid, and the Iranian strike on Qatar's Ras Laffan plant (plus the closed shipping strait) choked off sulfur supply, sending Mosaic's costs soaring.
He thinks it's been beaten up too far and should bounce once the conflict resolves and sulfur flows again. Long term it's "okay" but faces a real headwind: AI-guided "precision farming" (e.g. John Deere's smart tractors) could let farmers cut fertilizer use by up to half by applying it only where needed instead of over-spraying.
46:06How will the fertilizer industry do in this high oil price environment? Um especially Mosaic. I mean, we could extend this to the whole fertilizer space because there was also just disruption um in the in the Middle East disrupting um supplies. Mosaic's interesting because it trades uh risk off with war, whereas the other fertilizer companies trade risk on with war.
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