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MTCH · Match Group $43.15 -0.62 (-1.42%) 2026-SEP-18 12:48 EST

My allocationNot heldas of 2026-SEP-03 · allocation page ↗
Research: QT · SA · STK · FA1 mention
2026-AUG-08 · App Economy Insights · App Economy Insights (Substack newsletter) · Neutralinsight · read ↗ · source page ↗$36.73

In short: Tinder stabilizes. Q2 revenue −1% Y/Y to $853M (a $4M miss) with GAAP EPS $0.70 ($0.05 beat) and adjusted EBITDA +14% to $331M despite the revenue decline. Tinder revenue fell 1% to $458M as payers stayed under pressure, but engagement improved again: DAUs declined just 4% Y/Y, the best in 10 quarters, and management says daily users are close to turning positive for the first time in more than three years, helped by new recommendation algorithms, Double Date, Music Mode and Tinder's first major rebrand in years. The gap is monetization — Match Group payers still fell 6%, and Tinder revenue is now only expected to return to growth in 2027. Hinge remains the engine at +22% to $204M with MAUs +13% and European direct revenue +86%. Q3 revenue guided to $885–$895M, down 2–3% Y/Y, though adjusted EBITDA of $330–$335M implies another ~10% increase. "Tinder's product turnaround looks increasingly real, but Q2 exposed the next hurdle: converting better engagement into payers and revenue." A disclosed author holding.

SOD $36.73 (open 2026-AUG-07)

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