In short: No current view — his first big stock call, added to the Goldman conviction/recommended list on the day his first daughter was born. After two dry holes in Malaysia the stock kept falling before the third well: "their base business, I think, is worth the price of the stock. You're not paying anything for this phenomenal Malaysian upside." The Kikeh discovery in Block K "turned out to be a home run discovery for Murphy and therefore for myself."
Purely a story from 2000-ish, with no view on the company today. Murphy Oil was Murti's first big stock call at Goldman: he put it on the firm's high-conviction list the morning his first daughter was born. Then the company drilled two dry holes in Malaysia and the stock fell — an analyst's worst position, publicly committed and immediately wrong.
The reason it belongs here is the reasoning he used to hold on. He argued the value of the ordinary, already-producing business alone covered the share price, which meant the market was assigning zero value to the Malaysian exploration — so a third dry hole would cost little while a discovery would be free upside. That asymmetry is the actual method: when the base business already justifies the price, the exploration becomes a free option. The Kikeh discovery in Block K duly hit.
32:42And by the way the Murphy call, I actually added that to our — we called it our conviction buy list, or at the time it would have been the recommended list — on the day that it turns out my first daughter was born. So my wife it turns out was in labor at our apartment at home. I was on the what was called the 4:10 call upgrading Murphy.
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