| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSA | 5 | $83.21 | $416 | 0.39% | $91.06 | $-39 | -8.6% | — |
In short: Pick of the Week — vertically-integrated Appalachian gas (produce → gather → transport → distribute, ~750k utility customers) at ~11× earnings vs 15–20× for pure utilities. The $2.62B CenterPoint Ohio LDC deal (Oct 2025; ~1.6× rate base) doubles the regulated business (rate base ~$1.6B → $3B+, customers >1M), de-risking earnings. Q1 FY26 beat ($2.06 adj EPS +24% YoY; GAAP $1.98 vs $0.49); FY26 guide $7.60–8.10 (~14% growth), 109 Bcf production (+12%); 2.5% yield, 55-yr dividend streak (~37% payout); 15+ yrs drilling inventory. Shippingport Lateral sells firm capacity to a data-center customer (~$15M/yr); Mario Gabelli (Barron's) puts private market value 50% above price. PTs $95–101 (~10–18%), bull low-$120s; breakout above multi-year resistance (~$75 range-expansion). Risks: M&A dilution/execution, NY climate policy, $3–4 gas. A 3–5-yr value/income compounder.
National Fuel Gas is an old, boring-in-a-good-way natural-gas company. What makes it unusual is that it owns the entire chain: it drills the gas out of the ground in Appalachia, runs it through its own pipelines and storage, and delivers it to about 750,000 homes through its own regulated utility. Owning every step means it earns a margin at each one and doesn't depend on anyone else to get its gas to customers. The stock is cheap — about 11 times earnings, while plain utility companies trade at 15–20 — and it has raised its dividend every year for 55 straight years.
The big news is a $2.6 billion deal to buy a gas utility in Ohio, which roughly doubles its steady, government-regulated business (regulated utilities earn slow but very predictable returns). That shifts the company away from volatile gas-price bets toward dependable cash flow — a deliberate de-risking. Two bonus angles: a new pipeline that sells capacity to a power-hungry data center (the AI build-out needs reliable gas-fired electricity), and a public endorsement from famed investor Mario Gabelli, who thinks the company is worth 50% more than its current price. The risks are that the acquisition requires taking on a lot of new debt and issuing shares (diluting owners), New York's anti-fossil-fuel policies are a long-term drag, and the thesis assumes gas stays around $3–4. Haymaker frames it as a slow, steady 3–5-year compounder for value- and income-minded investors, with a re-rating to $95–100+ near-term and possibly the low $120s later.
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