| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 401K | 162 | $80.72 | $13,077 | 0.53% | $73.43 | $1,181 | +9.9% | — |
| RLT | 32 | $80.72 | $2,583 | 0.15% | $75.28 | $174 | +7.2% | — |
| Total | 194 | $15,660 | 0.35% | $1,356 | +9.5% | — |
In short: The day's one new position, and the only disclosed trade on the show. Joe Terranova bought it after flagging ag names yesterday. The macro: "we're seeing a significant spike in commodities overall, in particular agriculture more recently… everyone's fully aware of what's going on in oil and the derivatives, but it's corn, it's wheat, it's soybeans, it's cotton, all up double digits and more in the month of August." The instrument choice is explicit: "I want to get exposure to potash. Potash is the cheapest of the nutrients that are needed for fertilizer companies — you could go in the direction of nitrogen or phosphate, that's more expensive. Nutrien is the largest retail producer of potash itself." The company case: "they're improving their balance sheet significantly, they are increasing their free cash flow, they are already messaging that they will be returning more capital to shareholders." And the entry discipline, stated against his own trade: "the stock in the near term… is extended. So I might have reached for it here slightly. I'll buy some more in a pullback because thematically I want the exposure to agriculture." The catalyst he closes on: "remember we have the forecast for a significant El Niño weather event that is going to affect global food supplies — that benefits names like Nutrien, like Corteva and like Intrepid Potash." Wapner notes BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky is constructive on the same name, and jokes about who got there first.
Nutrien is the world's biggest fertiliser retailer, and the largest producer of potash — one of the three main crop nutrients (the others are nitrogen and phosphate). Terranova bought it this morning; it is the only new position disclosed on the show.
The reasoning runs backwards from the commodity. Crop prices moved sharply in August — corn, wheat, soybeans and cotton all up double digits — and a forecast El Niño weather event threatens global food supply, which would push them higher still. When farmers earn more per acre they spend more on fertiliser, so fertiliser producers are the leveraged way to own a grain rally without trading grain futures. He picks potash specifically because it is the cheapest of the three nutrients, and Nutrien because it is the biggest producer with an improving balance sheet, rising free cash flow and a stated intention to hand more cash back to shareholders.
The part worth copying is the honesty about entry: he says the stock is "extended" right now and that he "might have reached for it here slightly," so the plan is to buy more on a pullback rather than pretend the timing was perfect. That is a thematic position being built in stages, not a single trade.
In short: Terranova's final trade, and the concrete expression of the commodity leg of his rotation ("agriculture prices right now are on fire — the momentum is clearly intense"). "Nutrien — I want ag exposure. I will personally buy this on the close."
Nutrien is one of the world's largest fertiliser producers — potash and nitrogen for farmers. It is Terranova's final trade and, unusually, he says he will buy it personally on the close.
It is also the concrete expression of the show's main argument. He believes money is leaving high-momentum AI names and looking for somewhere with real, current price momentum: "agriculture prices right now are on fire." Fertiliser prices track crop prices, so this is the cheapest way he can express "I want ag exposure" in a single stock.
In short: Fertilizer is in short supply (energy + Hormuz); the disappointing fertilizer names should rally — Nutrien "would have a nice rally coming up."
Nutrien is the world's largest fertilizer company. Fertilizer stocks have been dead money lately and investors are giving up — but Hay sees the same setup as energy: it takes a lot of energy (and natural gas in particular) to make fertilizer, and the Hormuz shutdown is choking supply. Short supply plus steady demand usually means higher prices.
He thinks the disappointing fertilizer names are due to wake up, and "a company like Nutrien would have a nice rally coming up."
36:09— The other thing too that's and I didn't really dwell on this too much, but I think it's pretty tricking the fertilizer stocks because they have done nothing. They've been really disappointing and and I think some people are giving up on them because they haven't popped. But I think that's just a matter of time before people realize that kind of like with energy that fertilizer is really in short supply.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.