In short: One of its worst days on record, on back-to-back phase-3 failures. Annika Kim Constantino: "shares pacing for one of its worst days on record after the company had yet another trial setback today. Novartis said its drug for a muscle wasting disorder failed to meet the main goal in a late stage study, and that treatment was the centerpiece of the company's roughly 12 billion acquisition of Avidity Biosciences last year. The other key trial setback came on Friday, when Novartis said its cholesterol lowering drug failed to meet the main goal in a phase three trial because it did not significantly improve cardiovascular outcomes… the results are putting more pressure on the company's efforts to navigate upcoming patent expirations of blockbuster drugs."
Novartis had one of the worst days in its history, and it was the second failure in four days. On Friday its cholesterol drug missed its main goal — it lowered cholesterol but did not meaningfully reduce heart attacks and strokes, which is what regulators and payers actually buy. Today its drug for a muscle-wasting disorder also missed.
The second failure is the expensive one. That drug was the reason Novartis paid roughly $12 billion for Avidity Biosciences last year, so the acquisition's central asset is now in doubt.
The reason this matters beyond the two trials is timing: Novartis has blockbuster drugs coming off patent, and the standard defence against that is a pipeline of replacements. Two late-stage failures in a week make the replacement plan look thinner just as it is needed.
In short: Structural reference, not a call — Novartis is Incyte's ex-US partner on ruxolitinib (Jakafi/Jakavi): the drug's ~$3.2B annualized run-rate is "shared with Novartis outside the U.S." That split is why the INCY case is underwritten on US net sales, and why the 2028 US compound-patent expiry is the cliff that matters. No view, valuation or recommendation on Novartis shares is expressed.
In short: Cited as the demand driver under ytterbium-176, not as a stock view. "Novartis has recently launched a drug called Pluvicto. I think it's doing about three to four billion dollars a year now. Market expectations for it to grow to kind of six, seven, eight billion dollars per year by the end of the decade." Because Pluvicto's active isotope lutetium-177 "has a half life of a few days… you have to manufacture it every week," Mann puts Yb-176 demand at "probably a one-to-one relationship" with the drug's demand.
Novartis appears here as somebody else's demand curve, not as a stock idea. Its drug Pluvicto is a radiopharmaceutical for advanced prostate cancer: an antibody-like molecule that seeks out tumour cells and carries a radioactive atom — lutetium-177 — directly to them. Mann says it is doing $3–4bn a year today, with market expectations of $6–8bn by the end of the decade, and that roughly 100 similar radiotherapeutics are in phase 1 to phase 3 trials behind it.
The reason an isotope company cares is arithmetic. Lutetium-177 has a half-life of only a few days, so it cannot be stockpiled — every dose has to be manufactured that week — and it is made from ytterbium-176. That makes Yb-176 demand, in Mann's words, "probably a one-to-one relationship" with the drug's demand. Today Russia is the only country enriching Yb-176 in commercial quantities, which is why he says patients are waiting and why Bristol Myers and Eli Lilly have both blamed isotope supply for phase-3 trial delays. ASP Isotopes' answer is about a kilogram a year once its continuous processing vessel is running.
27:22I think it's doing about three to four billion dollars a year now. Market expectations for it to grow to kind of six, seven, eight billion dollars per year by the end of the decade. And there is a new category of drugs emerging. There's about a 100 therapeutics in development phase one, phase two, and phase three for radiotherapeutics.
In short: Europe's #4 (~$290B pharma) in the Europe-top-5 table — reference.
17:42After ASML is Roche with a market cap of 330 billion which is a pharma company. Then LVMH 295 billion and a consumer discretionary luxury company. Then Novartis at 290 billion and a pharma company. And number five is Nestlé at 260 billion and a consumer staples food company. By contrast, the market cap of the top five stocks in the US range from 2.7 trillion to 5.1 trillion.
In short: Named once, as Brederode's fifth-largest listed position at 6.2%. The archive's first mention; no stance.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.