In short: Witmer (re-recommend): glass-container turnaround under CEO Gordon Hardie — massive cost and capacity take-outs while competitors also rationalize, improving industry supply/demand in a fixed-cost business; winning share back from aluminum cans on new pricing. Guidance cut to a $1.25 midpoint largely on Iran-driven energy costs (passed through with a lag); OBBBA interest-deductibility change cuts cash taxes (NOL-like flywheel: cash > GAAP earnings → debt paydown → lower interest). Sees ~$2 EPS next year, $2.70 in 2028, $3+ in 2029 (EBITDA $1.325B 2027E → $1.4B 2029); stock $9.79 → $25–30 in a couple of years.
The world's big glass-bottle maker, at under $10 a share. The turnaround: a new CEO has slashed costs and closed excess plants — and competitors are closing capacity too, so the whole industry is running fuller, which matters enormously in a fixed-cost business. Glass is winning some business back from aluminum cans now that its costs are lower. This year's guidance cut was mostly the Iran war's energy costs, which get passed to customers with a lag. A tax-law change (interest deductibility) means O-I will generate more cash than its reported earnings for years — cash that pays down its $4.7B debt, which lowers interest, which raises earnings. Witmer sees ~$2 EPS next year rising past $3 by 2029, and a $25–30 stock within a couple of years.
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