In short: In Terranova's insurer list (12:31) — the auto insurer rounding out "Allstate, Travelers, Chubb, Progressive" as the sustainable trend if rates stay higher.
In short: Neutral rating on arguably the best insurer in the world, because the personal-lines sub-group is the one he has "not been more negative on" in his career: over-earning after ~60% rate hikes, a once-in-a-generation soft market, and ADAS shrinking accident frequency and the auto TAM. Has struggled to sell homeowners outside the coasts.
Progressive may be the best-run insurer in the world, but it lives in personal auto, which Tunis likes less than at any point in his career. Insurers raised car-insurance prices about 60% when roughly 40% would have covered inflation, so they are all earning too much — and now everyone is cutting prices to win customers back.
The bigger long-term worry: automatic braking and lane-assist features are on about 40% of new cars and are cutting the number of crashes. Fewer crashes means less insurance needed, so the whole market could shrink.
12:37stocks. Sure. You're not recommending Progressive. I'm not.
12:42But one could argue it may be the best insurance company in the world or it's
In short: Valuation comp only — trades ~12.8× NTM / ~3.92x P/B at an exceptional ~38% ROE; its premium multiple reflects that ROE and a more stable personal-auto book (vs TRV's catastrophe-driven volatility). The gap to PGR's multiple is what Haymaker argues the market hasn't yet given TRV credit for. A reference, not a call on PGR.
In short: The best of the auto carriers — ahead of the curve, it accelerated its growth a year or two ago while the others lagged. A big long he bought ~3 years ago at the cyclical trough; it has roughly doubled and he's now scaling the position back toward "mission accomplished."
Progressive is the best-run of the big auto insurers, and Sy's preferred way to have played the recovery directly. After the industry over-expanded and got hammered in 2021–22, the good carriers fix their own mistakes — they raise prices (regulators grumble but approve them) and rebuild profits. Progressive got there first, accelerating its growth a year or two ahead of rivals. Sy bought it near the bottom about three years ago; it has roughly doubled, so he's now trimming the position toward "mission accomplished." The lead-gen names are his preferred way to keep playing the up-cycle from here, because they have more upside left.
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