In short: No position ("to be clear") — the second "specific consumer company" theme. Host: still ~$5, down 96% from $167. Wilde: "if you forget everything that's happened historically and just look at what's the next two years of this business look like, I think that it's totally plausible that you're buying this for a single digit earnings multiple today" — conditional on a variant view that it is durable and growing; "if… it's in terminal decline… then it's not interesting at all." One of many consumer names "sold at equally like 30 to 60 to 90%."
No position. Peloton sells connected exercise bikes and subscriptions; the stock boomed in COVID and is down about 96%. Wilde says if you ignore the history and look only at the next two years, you may be paying a single-digit multiple of profits — cheap.
The whole case rests on whether the business is stable or shrinking. If owners keep abandoning the bikes, "it's not interesting at all."
In short: The third example — "Peloton, that was a big one, rising from $24 to 158 before collapsing." Sets up the question of what looks most vulnerable today; his answer is the semiconductors.
8:00You pointed out how Zoom rose 700% between December 2019 and October 2020 and then surrendered that entire gain by December of 2022. DocuSign went from $44 in 2019 to $36 in 2021 and then also gave all that back practically. Peloton that was a big one rising from $24 to 158 before collapsing.
In short: Profit without growth. Q4 revenue essentially flat Y/Y at $608M (an $11M beat) with GAAP EPS of $0.13 beating by a penny and adjusted EBITDA of $142M — and Peloton closed FY26 with its first full year of GAAP profitability, $63M of net income, $378M of free cash flow and net debt down to $123M from roughly $500M. But the subscriber base keeps shrinking: paid Connected Fitness subscriptions −9% to 2.55 million, paid App subscriptions also −9%, and monthly churn jumped to 2.2% from 1.2% in Q3 and 1.8% a year ago; subscription revenue still grew 7% purely on prior price increases lifting ARPU, while hardware revenue fell 14%. Peloton is broadening the product off the stronger base — Commercial grew double digits in FY26, Spotify extends distribution beyond Peloton hardware, and the Skōp acquisition adds connected Pilates. FY27 makes the trade explicit: revenue of $2.3–$2.4B, down ~4% at the midpoint, with adjusted EBITDA rising to ~$500M and gross margin expanding another 140 bps to 54%, and Q1 subscriptions falling nearly 10%. "Peloton must prove the business can grow again. FY27 guidance says that probably won't happen yet, with higher margins still being asked to outrun a shrinking subscriber base." A disclosed author holding.
Peloton reached a genuine milestone: its first full year of actual (GAAP) profitability, $378 million of cash generated, and net debt cut from roughly $500 million to $123 million. The turnaround of the balance sheet is done.
The business underneath is still shrinking. Subscribers to its connected bikes and treadmills fell 9% to 2.55 million, app subscribers also fell 9%, and — the worrying one — the rate at which subscribers cancel each month jumped to 2.2% from 1.2% three months earlier. Subscription revenue still rose 7%, but only because earlier price increases mean each remaining member pays more. Hardware sales fell 14%.
Peloton is using its stronger finances to widen the product: gyms and hotels (its commercial arm) grew double digits, Spotify carries its content beyond Peloton hardware, and it bought Skōp to add connected Pilates.
Next year's guidance is where the read turns negative. Peloton expects revenue to fall about 4%, while profit rises to roughly $500 million and margins improve again. In plain terms, management is planning to keep making a shrinking business more profitable. That works for a while; it isn't growth. As the article puts it, higher margins are being asked to outrun a shrinking subscriber base. The author owns it; analysis, not a recommendation.
In short: Retail-froth tell, not a stance: "Even Peloton is back in retail's psyche" — a Covid-mania relic re-entering the retail trade, evidence the retail army is buying garbage at all-time highs without fear.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.