In short: Last of Byrd's five. The one hedge he keeps: "while some new Bitcoin-to-AI projects in states like Texas may see delays, most Bitcoin miners are still in a strong position to convert their warehouses for AI use" — i.e. the exposure is to expansion, not to the installed base, and Riot's Texas concentration is where that caveat bites hardest.
Riot is the last of the five, and it is where the article's one caveat is worth attaching. Byrd concedes that "some new Bitcoin-to-AI projects in states like Texas may see delays" — and Texas is exactly where the large miners have concentrated, because power there was cheap and interconnection was fast.
So split the company in two when you underwrite it. The megawatts already energised are the protected, appreciating asset. The megawatts still on the drawing board face the same audit and the same queue as any hyperscaler's greenfield. The bull case rests on the first half being worth more than the market currently pays for the whole.
In short: New position: "we were able to buy that stock at around $19 at the end of the day. 19.85." Anthropic struck a $9.1B multi-year deal for 109 MW of compute from Riot's Rockdale, Texas campus, running through June 2048 with an option to extend to 286 MW and as much as $16.1B. The maths: $2.4M per megawatt of annual rent at an 80-90% NOI margin; assuming ~$11M/MW of capex and a 15× NOI multiple, the contract alone is "worth about $15 a share… which means that Riot should be worth something like 35 to 40 bucks a share once this starts." Why the entry existed: the stock spiked to 23 and sold back to a 19 handle "specifically because this deal doesn't really start till December of 2027 with a full deployment in June of 2028… the market wants to see it happen." Framed as speculative — "as all of the miners are that have now shifted their business model towards AI" — and long-term validating: "it really validates their business model… a game changer for the company." Deck pages 15-16.
Riot used to mine Bitcoin. Now it rents out the thing that made Bitcoin mining possible in the first place — a large site in Rockdale, Texas with an enormous, already-connected electricity supply — to companies that need to run AI computers. Anthropic just signed up for 109 megawatts of it, for $9.1 billion of revenue running all the way to 2048, with an option to expand to 286 megawatts and $16.1 billion.
The arithmetic is essentially real-estate arithmetic. Each megawatt produces about $2.4 million of rent a year, and 80-90% of that rent is profit because the tenant pays for its own equipment. Riot has to spend roughly $11 million per megawatt to build the shell and the power. Value that profit stream at 15 times and the contract alone is worth about $15 per Riot share — which is why Singh says the whole company should eventually be worth $35 to $40 against the $19.85 he paid.
So why was it available at $19.85? Because the stock popped to $23 on the announcement and then slid back once people read the fine print: the revenue does not start until December 2027, with the full build finished in June 2028. Nobody gets paid for two years. "The market wants to see it happen." He is explicit that this is a speculative position, like every miner that has pivoted to AI.
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