In short: A legal-catalyst deep value: a judge awarded Fiery a $719M judgment against Papaya Games (which has done several hundred million of revenue a year, >$1B over five years) against a ~$70M enterprise value / ~$150M market cap. Even a settlement at a third of the award makes the stock "more than a double after the appeal" — bull case >$50, settlement case $20-30, versus $9.16 today. Caveats: the appeal could take more than a year and a 2027 debt maturity may force a dilutive convert.
This is a lawsuit trading at a discount. Fiery — the mobile-gaming company formerly called Skillz — just won a $719 million court judgment against a rival, Papaya Games. The entire company is currently valued at roughly $150 million (about $70 million once you net off its cash), so the award is several times the size of the business that won it.
Even if Papaya can only pay a third of the judgment, the stock "could be more than a double." Singh's range: $20-30 a share in a settlement, over $50 in the bull case, versus $9.16 today. The catch is time and dilution — the appeal could run more than a year, and a 2027 debt maturity may force the company to issue a convertible bond in the meantime.
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