In short: "I don't have a ranking on Standard Lithium and I need to say I'm very cautious on lithium." The sector case against: the 2019-era shortage was processing capacity, not lithium; of ~150 juniors spawned "probably five or six have developable projects"; the market is now oversupplied; and MidAmerican (Berkshire), Occidental, Chevron and Exxon all believe direct lithium extraction works — if lifting costs "approach free," that is "very hard on the hard rock lithium producers."
Rick gives no ranking on Standard Lithium itself, but is unusually explicit about the industry: "I'm very cautious on lithium."
His history lesson: the famous lithium shortage of about seven years ago was never a shortage of lithium. The world's second-largest producer, SQM, disclosed some 85 years of production at then-current demand. What was scarce was processing capacity — the plants that turn raw lithium into battery-grade chemicals. Processed-lithium prices spiked, everyone went looking, and because nobody had looked before, they found a lot. Meanwhile the processing bottleneck was fixed. Result: oversupply, and of roughly 150 juniors created in the mania "probably five or six have developable projects."
The forward risk is technological. MidAmerican Energy (Berkshire Hathaway), Occidental, Chevron and Exxon all believe in direct lithium extraction — pulling lithium out of salty water that oil and gas wells already produce for free as a by-product. Rick disclaims technical expertise but notes who is betting: "if your lifting and production costs of lithium begin to approach free… that'll be very hard on the hard rock lithium producers." He adds the historical irony that until about 15 years ago lithium was waste that fouled equipment.
6:34I have no ranking on Silver One. I have a six rating on Bunker Hill. Okay. Surin wants to know your opinion or outlook on the lithium industry and also on Standard Lithium. I don't have a ranking on Standard Lithium and I need to say I'm very cautious on lithium. The alleged shortage that we had seven years ago was not a shortage of primary lithium.
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