In short: The cross-market proof of the curve mechanism — a five-year Sumitomo price chart is the post's first exhibit. "Bank stocks love steep yield curves; the extraordinary performance of Japanese banks since 2022 is a vivid example of that phenomenon. (Japan has the steepest yield curve in the developed world.)" — closing with "Who said you can't make a lot of money on banks?" It doubles as the technical analogue: "by the way, the Japanese banks generated a terrific breakout signal in early 2023," the same signal Haymaker now reads on KRE. Illustrative evidence for the KRE thesis, not a call on the shares.
Sumitomo Mitsui is one of Japan's biggest banks, shown here purely as evidence rather than as something to buy. The argument it supports is mechanical: banks make money on the gap between long-term and short-term interest rates, so when that gap is wide — a "steep yield curve" — bank profits and bank shares do well. Japan has the steepest curve in the developed world, and its banks have been spectacular performers since 2022. Hay's aside: "Who said you can't make a lot of money on banks?"
It does double duty as a chart precedent too — Japanese banks broke out of a long trading range in early 2023, the same technical signal he says US regional banks are producing now. If you want to know what the KRE thesis looks like once it works, the Japanese banks are the template.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.