In short: The group that took the hit (SOX −5.3%) — and the chart that never recovered. Terranova: "for the semis specifically, the SMH, the high was back in June, so it's never been able to exceed its previous highs… the market has played this game of kind of cat and mouse believing that there would be a restart. The momentum factor in semis itself… stalled out." Weiss: the market will be "in a trading range favoring the lower end as far as semis go. Yeah, there's a lot of air there." Thomas: investors are "a little freaked out about semiconductors because that's the high beta play." Santoli's counterweight: semis are "a big part of earnings growth projected into next year."
In short: His screen for the most vulnerable trade: "if you take all the stocks for example in the SMH and pull those out and go look at the graphs on them, you'll see they've all gone to new highs. Something like that, just that group up 20%. And usually that's a sign that you probably don't have a lot more to go."
SMH is a fund holding the major semiconductor stocks in one basket, so Oakley uses it as a diagnostic rather than a position. His test is simple and repeatable: pull up every constituent's chart. If essentially all of them are at new highs simultaneously and the basket itself is up 20%, the move is no longer about individual companies — it's a flow into a theme.
"Usually that's a sign that you probably don't have a lot more to go." Combined with his forty-six years of watching semiconductors "live by the sword and die by the sword," this is where he thinks the next Zoom-style round trip is most likely to happen.
9:42But if you take all the stocks for example in the SMH and pull those out and go look at the graphs on them, you'll see where they've all gone to new highs. Something like that, just that group up 20%. And usually that's a sign that you probably don't have a lot more to go — in the group — in the group specifically.
In short: Brown's momentum-reset gauge: 0 fresh 52-wk highs today but bouncing, RSI cooled to a healthy 49, the average semi's 10-day rate-of-change bottomed at −15% during the drawdown — "you finally got an opportunity." Santoli cites BofA: semis "corrected on nothing" and should rebound, though he's wary of declaring the unwind finished.
In short: The semiconductor ETF he uses as the comp — up 156% over the past year while Uber (−16%) and DoorDash (−23%) fell. The visual of the bifurcated market.
15:45First of all, if we look at this chart, this clearly shows the price performance discrepancy between the semiconductors, which is SMH, that's a semiconductor ETF, and Uber and DoorDash's price. If we look at just the past year, Uber is down 16%.
In short: "I bought the SMH, the semiconductor index, for my mom a while back, and she's going to keep holding it after what Leon said" — a light endorsement of the broad semis basket given the bullish AI-compute setup.
SMH is an exchange-traded fund (a single ticker that holds a basket) of the biggest semiconductor stocks — the simplest way to own "chips" without picking one name. Sacerdote mentions, half in jest, that he bought it for his mother and that she'll keep holding it given how bullish the panel was on AI-driven chip demand.
It's a light, closing endorsement rather than a deep pitch, but it reflects his core view that there isn't nearly enough compute and the whole semiconductor complex benefits.
23:57I think Leon's mother's in the audience, and I bought the SMH, the semiconductor index, for my mom a while back, and she's going to keep holding it after what Leon said.
24:17— All right, thank you guys so much. Really appreciate it. Thank you.
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