In short: A put-selling structure on a de-risked distressed name: after a dilutive refinancing + equity raise blew the stock to a "four handle" and vol above 120, he sold the Jan-2028 $2 strike puts (marked ~65c) to create the company at ~$1.20-1.35, and also owns common around $4. The thesis needs only two things — the termed-out debt removes bankruptcy risk, and the Trump administration allows offshore California drilling (weekend headlines suggest support). "Highly risky," but Jefferies' Lloyd Byrne still believes in the story even after cutting his target from 24 to 11.
Sable is trying to restart oil production off the California coast. It nearly ran out of money, then refinanced its debt and sold new shares — which diluted existing holders and crashed the stock to about $4, sending its options prices haywire.
Singh used that panic rather than buying shares outright. He sold "put" options expiring in January 2028 — a contract where he collects cash today in exchange for agreeing to buy the stock at $2 if it falls that far. Because the options were so expensive, the premium he collected means his effective purchase price would be roughly $1.20-$1.35, against a stock trading near $5. So he gets paid to wait, and only ends up owning shares at a fraction of today's price. The bet rests on two things: the refinancing removed the bankruptcy risk, and the Trump administration lets California offshore drilling resume. He calls it a highly risky story — which is exactly why he structured it this way instead of just buying stock.
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: A held/active options trade: the ~$956M Exxon term loan (incl. PIK) was repaid via a $675M TLB + $345M convert + $115M equity, tanking the stock to ~$3.08 — but that erases near-term default/bankruptcy risk, so it rallied ~30% toward the ~$4 convert strike. Singh is long via sold 2 / 2.5-strike puts at high premium (~70-80% return on capital); flags further put-selling as the stock needs momentum to clear $4.
Sable Offshore had a big loan from Exxon coming due and looked shaky. It just refinanced by raising money three ways at once (new loan, convertible bonds, and new shares), which flooded the market with stock and crushed the price to about $3. But because that removes the near-term risk of going bust, the shares then bounced ~30% toward $4.
Singh's team is already long in a clever way: instead of buying shares, they sold put options at $2 and $2.50 strikes for very high premiums — meaning they get paid handsomely and only end up owning the stock (effectively near $1) if it falls hard. They think that trade returns 70-80% on the capital at risk, and see more put-selling opportunities while the stock works to clear $4.
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
Nothing matches this filter.
Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.