In short: Answering a subscriber's short-Treasury/long-munis idea: "I don't like leveraged products." As the 10-year nears 5% you should be taking the short off, not adding — "and if the war really ends, you take it off" entirely. (Same message as the Korean single-stock 3× ETP that fell 96% in a month: "leveraged ETFs are a trap.")
TBF is designed to rise when long-term bonds fall — a way to bet against Treasuries. A subscriber asked whether to pair it with municipal bonds. Singh's answer was to avoid these products: they reset daily, so choppy markets grind them down regardless of whether the underlying view is right, and he had just spent an hour on how a 3×-leveraged Korean fund lost 96% in a month.
More importantly, the timing is late. With the 10-year near 5% and possibly peaking, this is the moment to reduce a short-bond bet, not add to it — "and if the war really ends, you take it off."
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
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