In short: The host's worked example of Porter's five forces, not a Polomny name. "I've been applying that for example recently on Thungela, which is a coal miner in South Africa… the chances of new entrants is pretty much nil because nobody's going to finance a coal mine. The threat of substitution is very real because you've got renewables, nuclear, gas, oil… power of sellers, everybody wants to have a bite of the poor coal miner… the government, in South Africa's case the railways cuz it all has to be shipped to Richard's Bay to be exported." The conclusion is a mixed scorecard used to force objectivity, not a buy or a sell; Polomny's reply is the scarcity point, not a view on Thungela.
The host's example, used to demonstrate a tool rather than to make a recommendation. Thungela is a South African thermal-coal miner, spun out of Anglo American.
The tool is Michael Porter's five forces, a 1970s Harvard framework for asking how attractive an industry structurally is, regardless of this year's price: how much power do your customers have, how much power do your suppliers have, how easily can new competitors enter, how easily can customers switch to something else, and how brutal is the rivalry among existing players.
Applied to coal it produces a genuinely mixed answer, which is the point. New entrants: almost impossible, because no bank will finance a new coal mine — good for incumbents. Substitution: very real, from renewables, gas and nuclear — bad. Supplier and stakeholder power: bad, because everyone from the government to the state railway that hauls the coal to the export terminal wants a cut. Running the checklist forces you to state the weaknesses out loud instead of falling for a cheap earnings multiple.
58:06And those five things are the five forces. I've been applying that for example recently on Thungela which is a coal miner in South Africa. And just kind of looking at it from that prism where well the chances of new entrants is pretty much nil because nobody's going to finance a coal mine. The threat of substitution is very real because you've got renewables, you've got nuclear, you've got gas, oil, you've got all manner of energy substitutions, power of buyers, power of sellers, so
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