In short: His #1 nickel expression (TLO.CN, C$0.39, ~US$390mn FD, US$25mn cash, no debt). Owns 51% of Tamarack (Minnesota) — the only US nickel development; Rio Tinto is 49% JV + 5% holder; DOE $115mn loan + DLA grant; Tesla offtake from 2028; nickel on the 2025 Critical Minerals List. New drilling: 390m at 3.2% Ni (6.1% CuEq). 1Q26 Feasibility Study catalyst; "too Trump-adjacent to disregard" — could wake up to a US-government stake/offtake.
Nickel is a metal used in stainless steel and batteries. Right now there's too much of it (mostly from Indonesia), so the price is cheap and boring. Paulo's bet is that Indonesia — which controls two-thirds of world supply — could crack down on its own dirty mines (it just did exactly that to tin), which would suddenly make nickel scarce and send the price up.
Talon Metals is a tiny company that owns most of the only nickel deposit being developed in the United States (in Minnesota), partnered with mining giant Rio Tinto and with Tesla lined up to buy the nickel. Because nickel is now an official "critical mineral," the US government is already lending it money — and Paulo thinks Washington could one day just take a stake and guarantee a price. So even while he waits for the nickel price to move, Talon has its own catalysts (a big engineering study due early 2026, government support) that can lift the stock. That's the "pay you to wait" idea: own something with its own reasons to go up while the slow macro bet plays out.
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