| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROTH | 2 | $187.28 | $375 | 0.15% | $185.00 | $5 | +1.2% | — |
In short: Q2 revenue +8% Y/Y to $22.8B ($150M miss), GAAP EPS +5% to $2.99 ($0.39 beat) — the first quarter in a while where guidance didn't rise across the board, with the only raises in cash flow and driven by lower cash income taxes rather than operations. The metric CEO Srini Gopalan inaugurated last quarter is decelerating: postpaid net account adds of 277,000 fell 13% Y/Y (still clearing the ~272K estimate) and ARPA grew just 2% to $153, down from 4% in Q1 — which matters because ARPA was the whole argument for retiring postpaid phone net adds. Postpaid service revenue still +13% to $15.9B and core adj EBITDA +12% to $9.5B, both industry-leading. Shares fell 10% after the print: CFO Peter Osvaldik guided Q3 to ~250K account adds (below Q2) and warned that retiring legacy rate plans will temporarily elevate account churn — while AT&T reported 432,000 postpaid phone net adds two days earlier (T-Mobile stopped publishing that figure in Q1, so there's no direct comparison). Adj FCF guide nudged to $18.4–18.8B and operating cash flow to $28.4–28.8B; postpaid net accounts reiterated at 950K–1.05M, core adj EBITDA $37.1–37.5B, ~$10B capex, ARPA growth now at the high end of 2.5%–3%. After 494K in 1H and ~250K guided for Q3, T-Mobile needs 200–300K in Q4 to land inside its own range with churn elevated by its own pricing changes. (Recap, not a stance call.)
T-Mobile is one of the three big US wireless carriers. Last quarter it changed the scoreboard: instead of reporting how many new phone lines it added (the industry's traditional yardstick), it started highlighting how many new accounts — households — it signs up and how much revenue each account generates ("ARPA"). The argument was that revenue per household is the better measure. The problem this quarter is that both new numbers slowed: accounts down 13% versus a year ago, and revenue per account growing just 2% instead of 4%.
The underlying business is still strong — service revenue up 13%, profits up 12%, both best-in-industry — but the stock fell 10% for two reasons. Management guided next quarter lower and warned that phasing out old price plans will push more customers to cancel temporarily. And AT&T had reported 432,000 new phone lines two days earlier, a number T-Mobile no longer publishes, so investors couldn't check it head-to-head. Doing the arithmetic on its own full-year target, T-Mobile now needs a strong fourth quarter to land inside its own range while its pricing changes are still driving churn. A recap, not a call.
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