In short: "I own Tourmaline and Birchcliff" — the two Canadian gassy names he still holds. The bet requires believing the impediments to moving Canadian gas to BC LNG export get cleared: he is "cautiously optimistic that Mr. Carney will overcome his anti-carbon bias," because the former banker knows "the thing that Canada does best in terms of their economy is produce oil and gas."
Tourmaline is Canada's largest natural-gas producer and the one Rick rates highest among the Canadian gassy names he owns — better positioned, in his view, than the well-regarded Strathcona.
The bet underneath it is political as much as geological: Canadian gas sells at a discount because it struggles to reach tidewater. If more of it can flow west to British Columbia's LNG export terminals it can be sold at world prices. Prime Minister Carney is on record as anti-carbon, but Rick is "cautiously optimistic" the arithmetic wins — a former banker with an expensive spending agenda knows "the thing that Canada does best in terms of their economy is produce oil and gas."
12:55I own Tourmaline and Birchcliff. I have a reasonably high regard for Strathcona. I just don't see them performing as well as Tourmaline. To own Birchcliff, you need to be a continued bull on North American, but particularly Canadian natural gas. And you have to believe that the impediments involved in moving more Canadian natural gas to liquefied natural gas export facilities on BC is going to go ahead.
In short: "Tourmaline — maybe best return on capital employed of a decent-sized company in the Canadian oil space. Just fantastic operators." His strongest single compliment of the interview.
Tourmaline draws his strongest single compliment of the hour: "maybe best return on capital employed of a decent-sized company in the Canadian oil space. Just fantastic operators."
Return on capital employed is the metric that matters most in his framework, because it measures how much profit a company generates per dollar it puts into the ground. In a business where the central sin is spending capital badly — either starving the wells or wasting the money — the operator that converts capital into cash flow most efficiently is the one you want holding your money for five years.
36:02I personally prefer smaller companies. We talked, I guess, a year, year and a half ago about ARC Resources. Somebody else liked it too — Shell. They took it over, lock stock and barrel. So that one's gone. But Freehold Royalties is still there. Great company. Tourmaline, maybe best return on capital employed of a decent-sized company in the Canadian oil space. Just fantastic operators.
In short: "Which I think is the best performer of the Canadian producers."
Tourmaline (garbled as "Tormolene") is a large Canadian natural-gas producer that Rick calls "the best performer of the Canadian producers" — i.e. the highest-quality operator on his Canadian list.
45:55Canadian Natural Resources, which is basically almost a mutual fund of Canadian oil and gas production. It's one company, but they inhabit almost every play up there. Freehold Royalty, which is probably my remaining favorite in Canada. Tormolene which I think is the best performer of the Canadian producers. Birchcliffe and PO, which are the two gas-centric players in Canada.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.