In short: The 2× long (WTI Aug26/Dec26/Jun27 on leverage) — flow reference, not a stance: assets roundtripped to ~$400m (back to pre-war levels after March/April outflows) even as the ETF hit new all-time highs Monday. Cited to show even the levered longs have shed assets; SCO (its 2× short "brother") now has ~3× UCO's assets.
UCO is SCO's mirror image — built to move twice as much as oil, in the same direction, each day (a leveraged bet that oil rises). Paulo isn't recommending it; he uses it as a flow comparison. Even this bullish product has bled money back to where it sat before the war (~$400m) despite hitting new highs, and it's now dwarfed roughly 3-to-1 by its bearish twin SCO. The point: the crowd has piled far more aggressively into betting oil down than up — reinforcing his contrarian read.
In short: The 2× levered long oil ETF (opposite of SCO): assets fell ~half to $440mn — less than half the size of the 2× short SCO — and it costs 8.3% to short (only 200k shares). Cited as evidence, not a stance: another vol-drag-plagued levered product and, with SCO, an inherently short-gamma "shooter" whose inflows exacerbate moves into the 2:30pm NYMEX settle.
UCO is the mirror image of SCO: it's built to move about twice as much as oil in the same direction each day, so it's a leveraged bet that oil goes up. Paulo isn't recommending it — he's pointing out how these products distort the market. Retail has been fleeing UCO (its pot of money roughly halved to $440mn), and both UCO and SCO share a hidden flaw: they must trade in the same direction as the day's move right before the afternoon oil "settlement" price is struck, which can shove the price around near the close (what some traders mistook for a government official "banging the close"). Worse, these funds hold longer-dated oil contracts that barely anyone trades anymore, so a big fund parked there can distort prices far out into the future — which, Paulo argues, is part of why oil producers can't lock in prices to justify drilling more.
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